ECONOMIC INFORMATION
FOR   INDIANA   FARMERS
No. 28
Division of Agricultural Economics
Julv. 1945
THE LIVESTOCK AND MEAT SITUATION
Meat production, although above prewar levels, is inadequate for the
combined civilian and Government demand at controlled prices. Supplies
available to civilians will shrink even further during the summer and early
autumn. Marketings of cattle* hogs, and lambs are expected to increase seasonally after October 1, but Government purchases may absorb most of the
increase. Recent changes in Government rzgulations are designed to stimulate meat production and improve (he distribution of a short supply. Prices
of livestock* including subsidies, for the next year or more are expected
to be as high or higher than during the past year. Prices may drop slightly
at seasonal peaks of marketings because of processing limitations.
The Supply Situation
All livestock production must be closely
related to feed supplies. The U. S. entered the
war in 1941 with surplus stocks of feed from
the good crops of preceding years. Although
livestock numbers increased each year, starting in 1938, there was available, out of the
crops of 1940, 1941, and 1942. about 21% more
feed per animal unit than the average in the
10 prewar years, 1930-39. With this extra
feed reserve, farmers, urged by war demands,
further increased livestock production. By
late 1943, not only were livestock processors
unab'.e to handle the marketings, but there
was also conclusive evidence that feed production was less than disappearance. Both
of these causes led to reductions in livestock
numbers, especially hogs and poultry. With
both of these products, prices had dropped to
unsatisfactory levels during the periods of
glutted markets in 1943-44, and the farmers'
reaction was a normal one in such cases-
reduced production. Although subject to considerable error because of unpredictable crop
conditions, total meat production in the U. S
during 1945 has been officially estimated at
approximately 22.5 billion pounds. This is
9% less than the record output in 1944.
Hogs: Hog production was reduced from
122 million head in 1943 to an estimated 87
million in 1944. However, this was still the
third largest hog crop in the history of the
nation, and 20% above the 1935-39 average
Current marketings are coming from the fall
pig crop of 1944, which was 34% smaller
than the record fall crop of 1943. Since May
1, hog slaughter under Federal inspection is
about 43% of the peak volume in early 1944
and 50% of May, 1944.
Beef Cattle: Cattle numbers remain near
the peak established in 1944. Total marketings during the first five months of 1945 were
about 10% greater than for the same period
of 1944. Practically all of the increase came
during the first three months of the year, as
marketings during' late April and May fell
below those of a year earlier. Tonnage of beef
has declined relative to numbers because of
shorter turns in the feed lot and an increased
slaughter of non-fed cattle. The April 1 estimate of number of cattle on feed showed an
increase of 8% over a year earlier. It also
revealed, as based on declared market intentions, that a much greater than usual percentage of fed cattle would be marketed before
July 1. This would indicate continued light
market weights and also an extreme shortage
of beef until the runs of grass cattle reach sizable proportions in the late autumn.
Sheep and Lambs: Although the slaughter
of sheep and lambs under Federal inspection
increased slightly during the first five months
of 1945 in relation to the same period in 1944.
substantial reductions are in prospect for the
remainder of 1945. Sheep numbers have been
declining since 1941.   Inspected slaughter of