VOL. XXIV.
INDIANAPOLIS, IND., SEPT. 21,1889.
NO. 38
THE BEEP 8TJPPLY
And Conditions Governing the Price of Oattle in the United States.
Bulletin of National Department of Agriculture.
During the pist years in response to a
widespread demand on the part of those
interested, the Bureau of Animal Industry
has made special efforts to obtain reliable
data as to the nnmber of cattle in the
country. Trustworthy agents, familiar
with the range cattle industry, were sent
into the various territories to gather the
most aoourate figures obtainable. In addition to the figures so collected, the estimates of the Statistical Division as to the
number of cattle in the States- have been
carefully gone over and revised in acoor
dance with the latest information obtainable. A comparison of the figures so compiled with the population sinoe 1850, shows
a steady increase in both, but a great fluctuation in the relative proportion The
population shows an increase from 23,191,-
876 in 1850 to 63,461,501, in 18S8, while the
number of cattle has increased in the
same period from 17,778,907 to 48,923,880.
The number of cattle per thousand of
population, however, has varied from 815
(in 1860) to 618 (in 1870,) attaining 800 again
in 1885, sines which timo. it has steadily
decreased Until iu 1833, flguxtw aro 771, only 4 more than in 1850.
The population since 1880 has been est!
mated on the basis of two per cent, annual
increase in addition to the immigration,
In order to obtain a clearer presentation of
THE BEEF SUPPLY,
the milch cows were eliminated from these
figures. Tne result of this elimination
showed a steady increase in the number
of milch cows and a steady decline ln the
number per thousand of population from
275_in 1850 to 236 in 1882, Bince when the
proportion hardly varied, never having
been less than 234or exceeding 238, At the
same time there is no question but that
the improvement and quality of the stock
has more than counterbalanced, by the increased produot, the reduotion in numbers from 275 per thousand of population
in 1850 to 231 per thousand in 1888. Turning your attention now to
THE OTHER CATTLE,
from whioh our beef supply is mostly obtained, we find, in 1850, 491 per 1,000 of
population. In 1860 this number increased
to 542 per 1,000, or over 10 per cent, and in
consequence of the war had dropped by
1870 to 386, a decrease ln 10 years of 28.7
per cent. In 1880 the number of this class
of cattle per 1,000 of population had in
oreased to 490, the proportion being almost
exactly the same as in 1850. From 1880 to
to 1885 there was a continuous and rapid
increase, whioh was due to the remarkable
development of the range cattle industry
in that period. Thus, in 1881 there were
502 per 1,000; in 1882 there were 522 per
1,000; in 1883, 536 per 1,000; in 1884, 650 per
1,000, and in 1885, 562 per 1,000. The increase in five years from 1880 to 1885 was
72 per 1,000 of population, or about 15 psr
'Cent. Since 1885 there has been a perceptible and
:       CONTINUOUS DECREASE
in the proportion of cattle to population.
From 1885 td 1886 this deorease was only
6 per 1,000 of population; from 1886 to 1887
it was 8 per 1,000; and from 1887 to 1888 it
• "was 11 per 1,000. In the three years the
decrease amounted to 25 per 1,000 of population, or about 4 4 per cent of the number
given for 1885. The proportion of cattle to
population in 1888 was almost exactly the
same as in 1883.   In considering the
' "Proportion of cattle to population,
-and in drawing conclusions as to the relative beef supply in different years, the
laot should not bs overlooked that there
has been a great change within the last 20
years in the oharaoter of steers that have
been sent to market. New and better
blood haa been infused into the old stook,
and the result is that steers are marketed
younger, weigh more and yield a larger
proportion of carcass than formerly. The
beef supply obtained from a given number of cattle is for this reason considerably larger than it was a few years ago.
The increased number of cattle per 4,000
of population does not, therefore, represent the whole inorease in the beef supply
which has taken place sinoe 1870. There
is, in addition, an increase resulting from
early maturity, size and quality, which
can only be estimated with great difficulty
and uncertainty.
STEERS slaughtered.
, It is impossible to obtain accurate information as to the number of Bteers slaughtered annually in this country for beef, or
to reach this number by even an approximate estimate. For this reason, the actual
beef supply which yearly goes upon the
market is an unknown quantity. It becomes necessary, therefore, to judge of the
supply by the total stock of cattle on hand
in the country. Such deductions are subject at best to grave errors whioh are liable
to arise from a larger proportion of cattle
being marketed one year than another, in
order to meet temporary financial emergencies, because of lack of feed, or because
of  abettor price for cattle as compared
wtt*. tin, JMlofrjvt wjra and 1.JJJ-.
The demand for meat for
HOME CONSUMPTION
should be tolerably constant in a series of
years like those of the present decade,
during whioh there has been no marked
financial depression. There is undoubtedly, however, a considerable influence exerted upon the demand for beef by the
quantity and price of pork products. In
other words, when the production of pork
is abundant and the price low there will
bs less beef consumed than when these
conditions are reversed. The quantity of
beef exported must also have an important
influence npon the demand upon theprice
With the facts mentioned above in mind
the following table is presented to show
the relation between the relative number
of cattle in the country and the mean prioa
of steers. It is immposslble to give a true
average price of steers from the data on
hand, bnt the mean price is a sufficient
indication of extent and direction of the
fluctuations from year to year
Table showing the proportion of cattle to
population, the  valve of cattle  and  beef
products exported, and the mean price of
beef steers in Chicago.
Number of
cattle (ex-       Exports of       Mean price
eluding
cattle and
of stJ-ers ln
milch cows)
beef prod-
Chicago per
lOUpjunds
perl,non of
nets.
population.
1»78
(425
187J
4 tO
18S0
490
f3l,5tt,*fi0
5 75
1831
602
32,801,"J 5
5 90
1632
12!
22,8.0,272
6 77
lag)
6.6
.5,0 4,741
5 67
1881
- 550
36,283,6.6
li ,5
18-5
662
32,014.0(1!
5 15
lam
551
'.7,32 j,3.)
4 it,
183/
513
21,-53,718
460
U88
637
2o,784 991
4 87
The above table shows that in 1880, with
a steady inorease in the price of steers
since 1878, with 490 cattle (excluding miloh
cows) to the 1,000 of population, and with
an export of cattle and beef products
amounting to $31,541,360, the mean price
of butchers' steers in the Chicago market
was f5 75 per 100 pounds. From 1880 to
1881 there was an inorease in the number
of cattle of 12 per 1,000 of population, the
exports inoreased over $1,000,000, and the
mean price of steers increased 15 cents per
100 pounds. The prices during this year
would seem tobeoonsistantwiththe oattle
supply and the exports as indicated in the
table.   In 1882 we find a remarkable
INCREASE IN THE PRICE OF STEERS,   '
which can not be explained by the data
which have been furnished. With an increase of 20 oattle per 1,000 of population
and a falling off in the export trade of over
? 10,000,000, the prloe of cattle not only ad-
vancad but reaehed the very highest point
of the decade. The Increase of the mean
price of steers from 1881 to 1832 was 87
cents per 100 pounds. We will return to
this advance later on and endeavor to furnish an explanation of it.
The mean price of steers in 1883 was$l 10
per 100 pounds lower than in 1882. The
exports for the year had increased
$2 500,000, and the number of cattle per
1,000 of population was 14 greater than in
the preceding year. Here, again, the fluctuation of price is muoh greater than the
table would lead us tn expect. In 1884,
with an inorease of $ 11,500,000 in the exports,
and with 14 more cattle per 1000 of population, the price advanced 42 cents and
reached $6 05 per 100 pounds. In 1885, with
the number of cattle per 1,000 of popula
tion at the highest point, with a falling off
of $4,000,000 ln exports, the price dropped
to f515 per 100 pounds. In 1886 and 1887,
with a slight decrease in the relative number of cattle and with a large reduotion of
exports, the price of steers decreased 35
cents in 1886 and 15 cents in 1887. The
export trade revived Bomewhat in 18S8,
and the number of cattle in proportion to
population continued to decrease; we are
not surprised, therefore, to find an advance
of 27 cents per 100 pounds in the mean
price of beef steers.
Having examined the table given above
*AM-_.__.>,nf. _.^f tinalltr. WA.ni  fjJrnail   to   ttlA
conclusion that the fluctuations in the
price of steers can not be explained by the
simple consideration of the number of
oattle in. proportion to our population, or
by combining this information with the
statistics of the export trade. Disturbing
conditions which have already been referred to are the average value of corn,taklng
the country as a whole, and the prloe of
hogs. To illustrate the influence of these
conditions the following table is added;
Table showing the average price of corn in
ihe whole country and the mean price of
hogs and beef steers in Chicago.
A verage
price ol
Mean price
Mean price
of hog. ln
of stee s ln
Years.
cora. per
Chicago per
Chicago per
bnshel.
10U pounds.
KO pounds.
Cents.
1.79
37.5
1)52
(4 60
1.80
,9,6
5 0>
5 76
l»8l
63.6
5 15
5 90
18S2
48.4
7 32
6 J7
1W3
42.4
607
5 67
18-4
3i.fi
6 75
6 (5
1835
32.8
4 12
5 15
18-16
16.8
4 2i
4 75
IfM
44.4
4 83
4 61
1883
34.1
b 82
4 87
It will be noticed from this table that,as
a rule, the mean price of hogs has fluctuated in the same direction an the average
price of corn, bat not always in the same
proportion. There are some apparent exceptions to this rule; for instance, in 1882
the price of corn is given as much lower
than in 1881, and theprlceof hogs as much
higher. The same apparent contradiction
is noticed in the years 1887 and 1888. A
partial explanation of these exceptions to
the rule will be found in the faot that the
price given refers to the crop produced in
the year named and not the average price
of oorn for the year. Thus the hogs marketed in 18S2 were fed partly upon the
crop of 1881 and partly upon that of 1882,
so that we should come much nearer the
average price of corn fed to the hogs sold
in 1882 by averaging the piioe for the two
years.
By constructing a table on this basis we
will see that the apparent exceptions of
1882 disappear, while that of 1838 is less
marked:
•
0)7-71
and hogs.
Average price of corn.
Mean price of hogs.
Years.
Cents.
Years.
Per loo lbe.
18;8-*19
34.6
1679
|»'62
1_7»-'8J
.8.5
1880
5 15
1880-"Sl
51.6
1881
5 9.-,
18ol-'82
66.
1832
732
18S2-'83
4>4
188,
6 70
l._3-'-4    '
31.1
1881
6 76
l88_-'85
31.2
1835
4 12
1835-*86    -
34.7
1888
4 21
isss-'a;
4_. 5
1887
4 83
lSS7-'88
89.2
1883
6.82
important factors which determines the
price of hogs and steers, as ls demonstrat ed
by the above tables, but where a number
of influences are at work we should not
expect any oloser relation between these
prioes than is here shown. The question
is a complicated one, and in the absence of
data which would establish the exact number and weight of the cattle and hogs that
are marketed each year, we can only hope
to get a somewhat general idea of the supply and demand and the relative fluctuations of prices.
NOW, GOING BACK TO THE CAUSES
whioh have led to the fl actuations in the
mean price bf steers, we find that the extraordinary advance of 1882 coincided with
an even greater advance in the price of
hogs, and that in each case the price must
bave been influenced to a considerable extent by the enhanced price of corn. The
largely decreased prloe of steers in 1883
also coincided with an equal decrease in
theprlceof hogs. In 1884 we find a decrease of 32 oents per 100 pounds in the
price of hogs, and an increase of 38 cents
per 100 pounds in the price of steers. This
would appear to be due to the large exports of oattle and beef products in that
year. In 1885 and 1886 the large number
of cattle in proportion to population, the
falling off of the export trade, and the low
price of oorn and hogs all exerted a downward influence on the price of cattle.
CHANGES IN i-RICE-..
The'prioeorhogs improve! considerably in 1887, bnt tbe price of steers declined
still farther. This was no doubt the result
of the falling ofl in our export trade from
?27,320,390 in 1886 to f 21,853,718 in 1887.
The slight advance of cattle prices in 1888
coincides with the much greater advance
in the price of hogs, but must have been
icfluenc-d alse by the increased exports
of cattle and beef products. The advance
was very slight on account of the large
number of steers marketed in proportion
to the stook on hand. With the decline in
prices the profit in cattle raising has been
greatly reduced, and in many localities
this industry has been conducted at a positive loss. The inevitable tendency has
therefore been to Bell off the stock and reduce the business, and consequently the
proportionate number of cattle marketed
has been mnch greater than during the
years from 1881 to 1881, when the industry
was paying and the stook on hand was
being increased. For this reason the markets of the country have not yet felt the
influence of the reduotion of the stock of
cattle in proportion to the population,
which the tables plainly show has ooourred,
and whioh must continue at an increasing
rate from year to year.
PRICES MUST ADVANCE BUT SLOWLY.
The future tendency of prices with cattle will probably be to advance on aocount
of the improbability of increasing the
stock of cattle as rapidly as the p -pulatlon
is augmenting. But this advance will be
slow and uncertain for a number of years.
It will be at least three years before the
stock of cattle has been reduced to the
proportion as compared to population
which existed in 1878, and then the mean
price of steers was but $4 25 per 100 pounds,
or 82 oents less than in 1838. In other
words, the price of steers for several yeara
in the future will depend more on the
price of hogs, upon the value, of the exports of cattle and beef products, and upon
the proportion of steers marketed, than
upon any changes likely to occur in the
number of cattle per 1,000 of population
which exist in tbe oountry.
The price of corn is evidently one of the
Mb, Ed. D. Kingsbury, just returned
from Montana, brings us a sample of the
wheat grown in the vioinity of Chinook
this summer. It is extra hard and fine.
The yield was 35 bushels to the acre on
old ground and about 15 bushels on  sod,