VOL. XXII
INDIANAPOLIS, IND., SATURDAY, JUNE 4, 1887.
NO. 23
THE  WORLD'S WHEAT.
What ofthe Future in Wheat Growing?
View  of  the  Matter from the  English
Standpoint.
From the Quarterly Review.
The "ordinary average" yield of the
wheat prop ill England is nearly 29 bushels an aore, which at 86a a quarter (Is 6d a
bushel), would return 06 10s Gd. If we allow £2 an acre for straw,the total amounts
to ts 10s lid, leaving a profit of only 10s Oil
if the expenses are .£8. That ia certainly
not a "living profit." Bearing in mind
the faet, that crops fed on the land or in
the yards, as a rule,do not yield any profit
beyond the manure left by the animals
which have consumed them, it is not extravagant to name £2 an acre as 8 minimum satisfactory margin for interest and
profit on the wheat crop, at any rate when
straw as well as grain is sold off the land.
To obtain that, the price of the grain must
l.e -Ifis a quarter. But the existing area of
wheat, and perhaps a small extension,
would be grown at half this satisfactory
profit, which could l>e obtained, according
to the estimates, with wheat at 41s. Indeed, it is possible to conceive of such a
reduction in rents, local burdens, rail
rates, and other expenses as to render the
production of wheatat 40sfairlyremunera-
tive. On the whole, then, it appears that,
even under such improved conditions, for
farmers as have been enumerated above,
there is no reason to expect the restoration of the wheat acreage of 1876, anil still
less that of 1886, with any lower range of
prices for wheat than that already given—
40s to 45s a quarter.
No doubt many readers will be disposed
to regard this statement as a verdict of extinction for wheat growing in England.
But it is the object of this article to show,
that the foreign Wheat supply is not likely
tube kept up at a lower range of prices
than 40s to 50s a quarter. wliich,as we have
said, will possibly be a remunerative rate
for home-grown wheat. Recently, during
the period of our vanishing wheat acreage,
imports of wheat have increased so enormously, in spite of falling prices during a
portion of the period, that people are apt
to think that we can obtain all we require
at almost any abatement of price. This
glut of the market is, however, only temporary and accidental. In 1866-7 our imports of wheat and flour, less exports,were
equal to only 7,600,000 quarters of wheat,
and it was not until after 1*72 that we began to receive over 10,000,000 quarters. In
1882-3 the quantity was 19,953,000quarters;
inthe following year, 15,816,000 quarters;
in 1S84-5, 18,001,000 quarters; and in 1885-6,
15,209,515 quarters. The last three quantities have been obtained with wheat at a
much lower average price than 40s a quarter, the average for the calendar year 1884
being 35s 8d, while that for 1885 was 32s
10d, and that for 1886 was ::is. But it does
not follow that wheat will continue to
I'ome to us in large quantities at sui'li miserably low prices, our contention is, that
this foreign wheat, with the possible exception of that sent from India, has been
supplied at a loss to the growers, and that
the wheat-growing area of the world has
already begun to contract, and will be seriously diminished unless the average
price is at   least 40s a quarter in England.
In support of this contention there is such
a mass of evidence available that the collector Of   it is embarrassed by its volume.
'I'lii' wheat acreage of the world had been
increasing enormously for several years
up to 1680, and less uniformly, up to 1883.
In the 10 years ending with I880,the wheat
area of the United States rose from a little
under 19,000,000 to nearly 38,000,000 acres;
a gain of 19,000,000 acres m one country
alone. In Australia, in 10 years ending
with 18.84, there was an increase of over
2,000,000 acres of wheat. An official report
state's that tbe acreage iii Bombay ia believed to have doubled during the last 12
years. The wheat area of all India, including the Native States,was over 27,000,-
000 acres last harvest, an increase of probably one-fourth of that large acreage since
1874, when India first began to export
wheat on an extensive scale. Egypt helped
to glut the wheat markets of Europe fen-
several years after 1871 ;but during the last
two years the Egyptian supply has been a
mere trifle. (Thill, again, made a great advance aa a wheat-exporting country in
1872, but has made no further progress.
The increased supplies from the countries
named have been far more than sufficient
to supply the needs of the increased population of Europe. Bnt will these sup*
plies keep up al anything like current
prices? Our argument is that they will
not, and that they have already begun to
fall off.
Our principal sources of wheat and flour
supply may be ranked in accordance with
the quantities which we received from
them respectively in the years 1886 and
1886, including every country which sent
us in either year as much as a 100,000,000
pounds. Flour Imports, in the following
list, are converted into wheat equivalents
and added to wheat imports, and the total
is computed in quarters of eight bushels.
It must be explained that Insignificant
quantities of flour from certain countries,
added for 1885, cannot be'added for 1886,
because the full details are not yet avail
able. The total quantity to be divided,
however, is only 201,894 cwts., some of
which came from countries not in the list
which follows:
WHEAT AND FI.OITR IMPORTS.
Source.                         1885, quarters. IMS, quarters.
United Stall's       tjmjtM tfltljmt
India       XfOtJtK ■.'.".l..l.;:
Ucis-cui       2,788,244 8M.IT7
Australasia       1,254,213 170.409
eiermany          865.201 539.763
Austrian Territories          544.251 :i92,!ltl7
Canadai, etc-        4si..i-
Cuili          374,508 392,700
From principal sourcer.
All other countries	
HUM!
eir.end total     18,7611,211 15,1m.ie;i
Let us consider, then, the prospect of
wheat growing in each of these exporting
countries. Does wheat growing pay iu the
United States at current prices, or has it
paid at the prices of the last three years?
Mr. .1. R. Dodge, the Statistician of the
American Department of Agriculture, in
his Annual Report of 1885, w rites:
"The value of an acre of wheat averaged
only $8 38 on an average yield of 13 biish-
els last year (1884), the lowest return of
which there is any record, and a figure
lower than thi' accredited estimate of the
cost of production. It may confidently be
assiiined,therefore,that there is no profit in
wheat production «t present prices.   But
there is a class of farmers who made a
profit on wheat in 1884. Those who secured SS bushels per aire, or 20, obtained
a small profit, provided the oost of fertilizers was not too largean element of it."
Now, this is said of the largest total crop
of wheat ever produced in the United
States, and of a yield per acre in excess of
the average, which was only 12.3 bushels
per acre for the 21 years (ending with 1885.
And if wheat growing did not pay generally in 1884, when the average yield was 13
bushels, and the "farm value" #8 38 an
acre, according to the Department of Agriculture, much less could It have paid in
1885, when the yield was only 10.4 bushels,
anil the value ?8 02; and there was no appreciable improvement in 1880, when the
yield was estimated officially at 12J4 bushels, and the value at $8 49 per acre. As to
the comparatively few farmers who grow
20 to 25 bushels per acre of wheat getting a
small profit, if they have not spent nnicli
in fertilizers, that does not amount to
milch as there were farmers in England
who made a profit, even in 1886. In considering the question whether wheat production is likely to be kept up in a country or not, al a pri r range of prices,exceptional instances like those referred to
do not weigh at all in the argument.
II appears to be the opinion of certain writers that American farmers plant wheat
without any consideration of price. A
glance at the official statistics will suffice
to prove that this idea is absurd. The follow ing table shows the acreage, average
yield per acre', average price per bushel
realized by the farmer, and average value
per acre of the produce for each year from
1880 to 1886, inclusive, of the wheat crop of
the United States:
Average Average
Area of yield, Average value or
wlH'iit e-i'eeie. per acre, price pee' produces
Year.          acres. bushels. bushel, pee-acre.
1880    37,986,717           13.1 «   95.1 812 48
1881    37,709,1120           10.1 119.3 12 at
I*-:    :I7.i«;:.I94           13.(1 88.2 II N
1883    30,4Vi,593             11.11 91.0 10 50
ISM     :w.475,ss.->            13.0 c;-..cl 8 38
1885    34,189,240            10.4 77.1 8 02
1880    37,000,01)0            12.4 08.7 8 49
Since 1880 the acreage has decreased, except in 1884, when nearly every acre sown
was reaped, owing to the favorable character of the winter. In 1885 the area sown
was over 38,000,000 acres, but about 4,000,-
000 acres had to be plowed up, chiefly on
account of "winterkilling." Eor 1886 the
area harvested was 37,000,000 acres, very
little having been plowed up.
The wheat acreage in the United States,
then, has been reduced since 1880, in spite
of the increase in the newly settled land
in the Northwestern States. It may be
said that wheat is lhe only orop to be
grown on land broken up from the prairie,
and it is quite clear that, but for the new
land.the' wheat acreage would have shown
a great decrease since 1880. Indeed, the
w inter wheat area sown fell from 27,450,-
ihn.1 acres in 1881, t<> 25,205,297 acres in 18.80;
while spring wheat, grown chiefly in the
Northwestern Stales, where the land has
been cultivated, increased from 10,259,000
acres to 12,037,000 acres. But for the newly
settled land, then, the wheat acreage
would have decreased by at least 2,000,000
acres, and in all probability by a much
larger area, as the quantity named is
much less than that of the land broken
since 1881.
It is not surprising that an average gross
return of about 33s an acre, obtained in
1.884 and 1885, did not prove satisfactory to
the American wheat grower. Out of that
return there is the expense of carting the
wheat, often to a great distance, to a railway or the nearest elevator. The straw is
burnt in most partsof Araerica,and where
it is not, the expense of grow ing wheat is
increased by the labor of manuring the
land. If the gross return were all profit,
the wheat grower would not become rich
very rapidly, and 33s an acre would be
only a very moderate profit for a year's
labor. The most common size of a farm in
America is 80 or 100 acres, and of course
not nearly all the land is cropped with
wheat in the same year, some of it usually
lying fallow. It is a startling fact, that
the gross returns of a farmer, getting the
average yield from 50 acres of wheat during the last three years, have been less
than the earnings of a farm laborer in
many States.
We have seen that, in the opinion of the
Statistician of the Department of Agriculture, only those farmers who have
grow n 20 bushels an acre or more have ob-
taini'd any profit in recent years. If all
llie rest   ceasi'd  to   grow   wheat, America
would become an importing oountry; and
even if the' result of a continuance of present prices were only to cause the cessation
of wheat growing on all land which does
not produce the present average yield,
America   would   met   produce  enough to
bed her own population.
During the decade 1870-80, the population of the United States increased from
B8,568,871 to 60,165,788. At the same rate of
increase, the number in 1890 will be nearly 65J4 millions. During the five years
ending with 1884, the average annual consumption was nearly 324,000,000 bushels,
and the average export 140,000,000 bushels.
If the production in the five years ending
with 18114 does not become greater, all but
43,000,000 per annum, or less than 5>jJ million quarters, will be required for home
consumption, and the surplus will not
suffice for the increased population of the
next five years. Before the end of the
present century, then, the present production of wheat in the United States will
be Insufficient for home ree]iiirenients,and
the people of Europe will have to look
elsewhere for that main portion of their
foreign supply which now comes to them
across the Atlantic. A continuance of recent prices for a few more years would not
only prevent that surplus from keeping
up to its recent average, but would prevent its production altogether. As already
intimated, however, such a result is not to
be apprehended, as the increasing demand
of the world for wheat must send prices
up to a remunerative standard, and then
American production will once more advance steadily.
Ben. l'erley Poore the veteran journalist died in Washington, I). ('., May 29.
He was born in Massachusetts in 1820 and
began his journalistic career at the age of
18. He resided in Washington more than
30 years, during which time he performed avast amount of work for various newspapers. Among his writings are
"Rise and Fall of Louis Philippe," published in 1648 and "The Conspiracy Trial,"
given to the world in 1865. *