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VOL. XXII INDIANAPOLIS, IND., SATURDAY, JUNE 4, 1887. NO. 23 THE WORLD'S WHEAT. What ofthe Future in Wheat Growing? View of the Matter from the English Standpoint. From the Quarterly Review. The "ordinary average" yield of the wheat prop ill England is nearly 29 bushels an aore, which at 86a a quarter (Is 6d a bushel), would return 06 10s Gd. If we allow £2 an acre for straw,the total amounts to ts 10s lid, leaving a profit of only 10s Oil if the expenses are .£8. That ia certainly not a "living profit." Bearing in mind the faet, that crops fed on the land or in the yards, as a rule,do not yield any profit beyond the manure left by the animals which have consumed them, it is not extravagant to name £2 an acre as 8 minimum satisfactory margin for interest and profit on the wheat crop, at any rate when straw as well as grain is sold off the land. To obtain that, the price of the grain must l.e -Ifis a quarter. But the existing area of wheat, and perhaps a small extension, would be grown at half this satisfactory profit, which could l>e obtained, according to the estimates, with wheat at 41s. Indeed, it is possible to conceive of such a reduction in rents, local burdens, rail rates, and other expenses as to render the production of wheatat 40sfairlyremunera- tive. On the whole, then, it appears that, even under such improved conditions, for farmers as have been enumerated above, there is no reason to expect the restoration of the wheat acreage of 1876, anil still less that of 1886, with any lower range of prices for wheat than that already given— 40s to 45s a quarter. No doubt many readers will be disposed to regard this statement as a verdict of extinction for wheat growing in England. But it is the object of this article to show, that the foreign Wheat supply is not likely tube kept up at a lower range of prices than 40s to 50s a quarter. wliich,as we have said, will possibly be a remunerative rate for home-grown wheat. Recently, during the period of our vanishing wheat acreage, imports of wheat have increased so enormously, in spite of falling prices during a portion of the period, that people are apt to think that we can obtain all we require at almost any abatement of price. This glut of the market is, however, only temporary and accidental. In 1866-7 our imports of wheat and flour, less exports,were equal to only 7,600,000 quarters of wheat, and it was not until after 1*72 that we began to receive over 10,000,000 quarters. In 1882-3 the quantity was 19,953,000quarters; inthe following year, 15,816,000 quarters; in 1S84-5, 18,001,000 quarters; and in 1885-6, 15,209,515 quarters. The last three quantities have been obtained with wheat at a much lower average price than 40s a quarter, the average for the calendar year 1884 being 35s 8d, while that for 1885 was 32s 10d, and that for 1886 was ::is. But it does not follow that wheat will continue to I'ome to us in large quantities at sui'li miserably low prices, our contention is, that this foreign wheat, with the possible exception of that sent from India, has been supplied at a loss to the growers, and that the wheat-growing area of the world has already begun to contract, and will be seriously diminished unless the average price is at least 40s a quarter in England. In support of this contention there is such a mass of evidence available that the collector Of it is embarrassed by its volume. 'I'lii' wheat acreage of the world had been increasing enormously for several years up to 1680, and less uniformly, up to 1883. In the 10 years ending with I880,the wheat area of the United States rose from a little under 19,000,000 to nearly 38,000,000 acres; a gain of 19,000,000 acres m one country alone. In Australia, in 10 years ending with 18.84, there was an increase of over 2,000,000 acres of wheat. An official report state's that tbe acreage iii Bombay ia believed to have doubled during the last 12 years. The wheat area of all India, including the Native States,was over 27,000,- 000 acres last harvest, an increase of probably one-fourth of that large acreage since 1874, when India first began to export wheat on an extensive scale. Egypt helped to glut the wheat markets of Europe fen- several years after 1871 ;but during the last two years the Egyptian supply has been a mere trifle. (Thill, again, made a great advance aa a wheat-exporting country in 1872, but has made no further progress. The increased supplies from the countries named have been far more than sufficient to supply the needs of the increased population of Europe. Bnt will these sup* plies keep up al anything like current prices? Our argument is that they will not, and that they have already begun to fall off. Our principal sources of wheat and flour supply may be ranked in accordance with the quantities which we received from them respectively in the years 1886 and 1886, including every country which sent us in either year as much as a 100,000,000 pounds. Flour Imports, in the following list, are converted into wheat equivalents and added to wheat imports, and the total is computed in quarters of eight bushels. It must be explained that Insignificant quantities of flour from certain countries, added for 1885, cannot be'added for 1886, because the full details are not yet avail able. The total quantity to be divided, however, is only 201,894 cwts., some of which came from countries not in the list which follows: WHEAT AND FI.OITR IMPORTS. Source. 1885, quarters. IMS, quarters. United Stall's tjmjtM tfltljmt India XfOtJtK ■.'.".l..l.;: Ucis-cui 2,788,244 8M.IT7 Australasia 1,254,213 170.409 eiermany 865.201 539.763 Austrian Territories 544.251 :i92,!ltl7 Canadai, etc- 4si..i- Cuili 374,508 392,700 From principal sourcer. All other countries HUM! eir.end total 18,7611,211 15,1m.ie;i Let us consider, then, the prospect of wheat growing in each of these exporting countries. Does wheat growing pay iu the United States at current prices, or has it paid at the prices of the last three years? Mr. .1. R. Dodge, the Statistician of the American Department of Agriculture, in his Annual Report of 1885, w rites: "The value of an acre of wheat averaged only $8 38 on an average yield of 13 biish- els last year (1884), the lowest return of which there is any record, and a figure lower than thi' accredited estimate of the cost of production. It may confidently be assiiined,therefore,that there is no profit in wheat production «t present prices. But there is a class of farmers who made a profit on wheat in 1884. Those who secured SS bushels per aire, or 20, obtained a small profit, provided the oost of fertilizers was not too largean element of it." Now, this is said of the largest total crop of wheat ever produced in the United States, and of a yield per acre in excess of the average, which was only 12.3 bushels per acre for the 21 years (ending with 1885. And if wheat growing did not pay generally in 1884, when the average yield was 13 bushels, and the "farm value" #8 38 an acre, according to the Department of Agriculture, much less could It have paid in 1885, when the yield was only 10.4 bushels, anil the value ?8 02; and there was no appreciable improvement in 1880, when the yield was estimated officially at 12J4 bushels, and the value at $8 49 per acre. As to the comparatively few farmers who grow 20 to 25 bushels per acre of wheat getting a small profit, if they have not spent nnicli in fertilizers, that does not amount to milch as there were farmers in England who made a profit, even in 1886. In considering the question whether wheat production is likely to be kept up in a country or not, al a pri r range of prices,exceptional instances like those referred to do not weigh at all in the argument. II appears to be the opinion of certain writers that American farmers plant wheat without any consideration of price. A glance at the official statistics will suffice to prove that this idea is absurd. The follow ing table shows the acreage, average yield per acre', average price per bushel realized by the farmer, and average value per acre of the produce for each year from 1880 to 1886, inclusive, of the wheat crop of the United States: Average Average Area of yield, Average value or wlH'iit e-i'eeie. per acre, price pee' produces Year. acres. bushels. bushel, pee-acre. 1880 37,986,717 13.1 « 95.1 812 48 1881 37,709,1120 10.1 119.3 12 at I*-: :I7.i«;:.I94 13.(1 88.2 II N 1883 30,4Vi,593 11.11 91.0 10 50 ISM :w.475,ss.-> 13.0 c;-..cl 8 38 1885 34,189,240 10.4 77.1 8 02 1880 37,000,01)0 12.4 08.7 8 49 Since 1880 the acreage has decreased, except in 1884, when nearly every acre sown was reaped, owing to the favorable character of the winter. In 1885 the area sown was over 38,000,000 acres, but about 4,000,- 000 acres had to be plowed up, chiefly on account of "winterkilling." Eor 1886 the area harvested was 37,000,000 acres, very little having been plowed up. The wheat acreage in the United States, then, has been reduced since 1880, in spite of the increase in the newly settled land in the Northwestern States. It may be said that wheat is lhe only orop to be grown on land broken up from the prairie, and it is quite clear that, but for the new land.the' wheat acreage would have shown a great decrease since 1880. Indeed, the w inter wheat area sown fell from 27,450,- ihn.1 acres in 1881, t<> 25,205,297 acres in 18.80; while spring wheat, grown chiefly in the Northwestern Stales, where the land has been cultivated, increased from 10,259,000 acres to 12,037,000 acres. But for the newly settled land, then, the wheat acreage would have decreased by at least 2,000,000 acres, and in all probability by a much larger area, as the quantity named is much less than that of the land broken since 1881. It is not surprising that an average gross return of about 33s an acre, obtained in 1.884 and 1885, did not prove satisfactory to the American wheat grower. Out of that return there is the expense of carting the wheat, often to a great distance, to a railway or the nearest elevator. The straw is burnt in most partsof Araerica,and where it is not, the expense of grow ing wheat is increased by the labor of manuring the land. If the gross return were all profit, the wheat grower would not become rich very rapidly, and 33s an acre would be only a very moderate profit for a year's labor. The most common size of a farm in America is 80 or 100 acres, and of course not nearly all the land is cropped with wheat in the same year, some of it usually lying fallow. It is a startling fact, that the gross returns of a farmer, getting the average yield from 50 acres of wheat during the last three years, have been less than the earnings of a farm laborer in many States. We have seen that, in the opinion of the Statistician of the Department of Agriculture, only those farmers who have grow n 20 bushels an acre or more have ob- taini'd any profit in recent years. If all llie rest ceasi'd to grow wheat, America would become an importing oountry; and even if the' result of a continuance of present prices were only to cause the cessation of wheat growing on all land which does not produce the present average yield, America would met produce enough to bed her own population. During the decade 1870-80, the population of the United States increased from B8,568,871 to 60,165,788. At the same rate of increase, the number in 1890 will be nearly 65J4 millions. During the five years ending with 1884, the average annual consumption was nearly 324,000,000 bushels, and the average export 140,000,000 bushels. If the production in the five years ending with 18114 does not become greater, all but 43,000,000 per annum, or less than 5>jJ million quarters, will be required for home consumption, and the surplus will not suffice for the increased population of the next five years. Before the end of the present century, then, the present production of wheat in the United States will be Insufficient for home ree]iiirenients,and the people of Europe will have to look elsewhere for that main portion of their foreign supply which now comes to them across the Atlantic. A continuance of recent prices for a few more years would not only prevent that surplus from keeping up to its recent average, but would prevent its production altogether. As already intimated, however, such a result is not to be apprehended, as the increasing demand of the world for wheat must send prices up to a remunerative standard, and then American production will once more advance steadily. Ben. l'erley Poore the veteran journalist died in Washington, I). ('., May 29. He was born in Massachusetts in 1820 and began his journalistic career at the age of 18. He resided in Washington more than 30 years, during which time he performed avast amount of work for various newspapers. Among his writings are "Rise and Fall of Louis Philippe," published in 1648 and "The Conspiracy Trial," given to the world in 1865. *
Object Description
Title | Indiana farmer, 1887, v. 22, no. 23 (June 4) |
Purdue Identification Number | INFA2223 |
Date of Original | 1887 |
Subjects (LCSH) |
Agriculture Farm management Horticulture Agricultural machinery |
Subjects (NALT) |
agriculture farm management horticulture agricultural machinery and equipment |
Genre | Periodical |
Call Number of Original | 630.5 In2 |
Location of Original | Hicks Repository |
Coverage | United States - Indiana |
Type | text |
Format | JP2 |
Language | eng |
Collection Title | Indiana Farmer |
Rights Statement | Content in the Indiana Farmer Collection is in the public domain (published before 1923) or lacks a known copyright holder. Digital images in the collection may be used for educational, non-commercial, or not-for-profit purposes. |
Repository | Purdue University Libraries |
Date Digitized | 2011-02-21 |
Digitization Information | Original scanned at 300 ppi on a Bookeye 3 scanner using internal software. Display images generated in CONTENTdm as JP2000s; file format for archival copy is uncompressed TIF format. |
Description
Title | Page 1 |
Subjects (LCSH) |
Agriculture Farm management Horticulture Agricultural machinery |
Subjects (NALT) |
agriculture farm management horticulture agricultural machinery and equipment |
Genre | Periodical |
Call Number of Original | 630.5 In2 |
Location of Original | Hicks Repository |
Coverage | Indiana |
Type | text |
Format | JP2 |
Language | eng |
Collection Title | Indiana Farmer |
Rights Statement | Content in the Indiana Farmer Collection is in the public domain (published before 1923) or lacks a known copyright holder. Digital images in the collection may be used for educational, non-commercial, or non-for-profit purposes. |
Repository | Purdue University Libraries |
Digitization Information | Orignal scanned at 300 ppi on a Bookeye 3 scanner using internal software. Display images generated in CONTENTdm as JP2000s; file format for archival copy is uncompressed TIF format. |
Transcript | VOL. XXII INDIANAPOLIS, IND., SATURDAY, JUNE 4, 1887. NO. 23 THE WORLD'S WHEAT. What ofthe Future in Wheat Growing? View of the Matter from the English Standpoint. From the Quarterly Review. The "ordinary average" yield of the wheat prop ill England is nearly 29 bushels an aore, which at 86a a quarter (Is 6d a bushel), would return 06 10s Gd. If we allow £2 an acre for straw,the total amounts to ts 10s lid, leaving a profit of only 10s Oil if the expenses are .£8. That ia certainly not a "living profit." Bearing in mind the faet, that crops fed on the land or in the yards, as a rule,do not yield any profit beyond the manure left by the animals which have consumed them, it is not extravagant to name £2 an acre as 8 minimum satisfactory margin for interest and profit on the wheat crop, at any rate when straw as well as grain is sold off the land. To obtain that, the price of the grain must l.e -Ifis a quarter. But the existing area of wheat, and perhaps a small extension, would be grown at half this satisfactory profit, which could l>e obtained, according to the estimates, with wheat at 41s. Indeed, it is possible to conceive of such a reduction in rents, local burdens, rail rates, and other expenses as to render the production of wheatat 40sfairlyremunera- tive. On the whole, then, it appears that, even under such improved conditions, for farmers as have been enumerated above, there is no reason to expect the restoration of the wheat acreage of 1876, anil still less that of 1886, with any lower range of prices for wheat than that already given— 40s to 45s a quarter. No doubt many readers will be disposed to regard this statement as a verdict of extinction for wheat growing in England. But it is the object of this article to show, that the foreign Wheat supply is not likely tube kept up at a lower range of prices than 40s to 50s a quarter. wliich,as we have said, will possibly be a remunerative rate for home-grown wheat. Recently, during the period of our vanishing wheat acreage, imports of wheat have increased so enormously, in spite of falling prices during a portion of the period, that people are apt to think that we can obtain all we require at almost any abatement of price. This glut of the market is, however, only temporary and accidental. In 1866-7 our imports of wheat and flour, less exports,were equal to only 7,600,000 quarters of wheat, and it was not until after 1*72 that we began to receive over 10,000,000 quarters. In 1882-3 the quantity was 19,953,000quarters; inthe following year, 15,816,000 quarters; in 1S84-5, 18,001,000 quarters; and in 1885-6, 15,209,515 quarters. The last three quantities have been obtained with wheat at a much lower average price than 40s a quarter, the average for the calendar year 1884 being 35s 8d, while that for 1885 was 32s 10d, and that for 1886 was ::is. But it does not follow that wheat will continue to I'ome to us in large quantities at sui'li miserably low prices, our contention is, that this foreign wheat, with the possible exception of that sent from India, has been supplied at a loss to the growers, and that the wheat-growing area of the world has already begun to contract, and will be seriously diminished unless the average price is at least 40s a quarter in England. In support of this contention there is such a mass of evidence available that the collector Of it is embarrassed by its volume. 'I'lii' wheat acreage of the world had been increasing enormously for several years up to 1680, and less uniformly, up to 1883. In the 10 years ending with I880,the wheat area of the United States rose from a little under 19,000,000 to nearly 38,000,000 acres; a gain of 19,000,000 acres m one country alone. In Australia, in 10 years ending with 18.84, there was an increase of over 2,000,000 acres of wheat. An official report state's that tbe acreage iii Bombay ia believed to have doubled during the last 12 years. The wheat area of all India, including the Native States,was over 27,000,- 000 acres last harvest, an increase of probably one-fourth of that large acreage since 1874, when India first began to export wheat on an extensive scale. Egypt helped to glut the wheat markets of Europe fen- several years after 1871 ;but during the last two years the Egyptian supply has been a mere trifle. (Thill, again, made a great advance aa a wheat-exporting country in 1872, but has made no further progress. The increased supplies from the countries named have been far more than sufficient to supply the needs of the increased population of Europe. Bnt will these sup* plies keep up al anything like current prices? Our argument is that they will not, and that they have already begun to fall off. Our principal sources of wheat and flour supply may be ranked in accordance with the quantities which we received from them respectively in the years 1886 and 1886, including every country which sent us in either year as much as a 100,000,000 pounds. Flour Imports, in the following list, are converted into wheat equivalents and added to wheat imports, and the total is computed in quarters of eight bushels. It must be explained that Insignificant quantities of flour from certain countries, added for 1885, cannot be'added for 1886, because the full details are not yet avail able. The total quantity to be divided, however, is only 201,894 cwts., some of which came from countries not in the list which follows: WHEAT AND FI.OITR IMPORTS. Source. 1885, quarters. IMS, quarters. United Stall's tjmjtM tfltljmt India XfOtJtK ■.'.".l..l.;: Ucis-cui 2,788,244 8M.IT7 Australasia 1,254,213 170.409 eiermany 865.201 539.763 Austrian Territories 544.251 :i92,!ltl7 Canadai, etc- 4si..i- Cuili 374,508 392,700 From principal sourcer. All other countries HUM! eir.end total 18,7611,211 15,1m.ie;i Let us consider, then, the prospect of wheat growing in each of these exporting countries. Does wheat growing pay iu the United States at current prices, or has it paid at the prices of the last three years? Mr. .1. R. Dodge, the Statistician of the American Department of Agriculture, in his Annual Report of 1885, w rites: "The value of an acre of wheat averaged only $8 38 on an average yield of 13 biish- els last year (1884), the lowest return of which there is any record, and a figure lower than thi' accredited estimate of the cost of production. It may confidently be assiiined,therefore,that there is no profit in wheat production «t present prices. But there is a class of farmers who made a profit on wheat in 1884. Those who secured SS bushels per aire, or 20, obtained a small profit, provided the oost of fertilizers was not too largean element of it." Now, this is said of the largest total crop of wheat ever produced in the United States, and of a yield per acre in excess of the average, which was only 12.3 bushels per acre for the 21 years (ending with 1885. And if wheat growing did not pay generally in 1884, when the average yield was 13 bushels, and the "farm value" #8 38 an acre, according to the Department of Agriculture, much less could It have paid in 1885, when the yield was only 10.4 bushels, anil the value ?8 02; and there was no appreciable improvement in 1880, when the yield was estimated officially at 12J4 bushels, and the value at $8 49 per acre. As to the comparatively few farmers who grow 20 to 25 bushels per acre of wheat getting a small profit, if they have not spent nnicli in fertilizers, that does not amount to milch as there were farmers in England who made a profit, even in 1886. In considering the question whether wheat production is likely to be kept up in a country or not, al a pri r range of prices,exceptional instances like those referred to do not weigh at all in the argument. II appears to be the opinion of certain writers that American farmers plant wheat without any consideration of price. A glance at the official statistics will suffice to prove that this idea is absurd. The follow ing table shows the acreage, average yield per acre', average price per bushel realized by the farmer, and average value per acre of the produce for each year from 1880 to 1886, inclusive, of the wheat crop of the United States: Average Average Area of yield, Average value or wlH'iit e-i'eeie. per acre, price pee' produces Year. acres. bushels. bushel, pee-acre. 1880 37,986,717 13.1 « 95.1 812 48 1881 37,709,1120 10.1 119.3 12 at I*-: :I7.i«;:.I94 13.(1 88.2 II N 1883 30,4Vi,593 11.11 91.0 10 50 ISM :w.475,ss.-> 13.0 c;-..cl 8 38 1885 34,189,240 10.4 77.1 8 02 1880 37,000,01)0 12.4 08.7 8 49 Since 1880 the acreage has decreased, except in 1884, when nearly every acre sown was reaped, owing to the favorable character of the winter. In 1885 the area sown was over 38,000,000 acres, but about 4,000,- 000 acres had to be plowed up, chiefly on account of "winterkilling." Eor 1886 the area harvested was 37,000,000 acres, very little having been plowed up. The wheat acreage in the United States, then, has been reduced since 1880, in spite of the increase in the newly settled land in the Northwestern States. It may be said that wheat is lhe only orop to be grown on land broken up from the prairie, and it is quite clear that, but for the new land.the' wheat acreage would have shown a great decrease since 1880. Indeed, the w inter wheat area sown fell from 27,450,- ihn.1 acres in 1881, t<> 25,205,297 acres in 18.80; while spring wheat, grown chiefly in the Northwestern Stales, where the land has been cultivated, increased from 10,259,000 acres to 12,037,000 acres. But for the newly settled land, then, the wheat acreage would have decreased by at least 2,000,000 acres, and in all probability by a much larger area, as the quantity named is much less than that of the land broken since 1881. It is not surprising that an average gross return of about 33s an acre, obtained in 1.884 and 1885, did not prove satisfactory to the American wheat grower. Out of that return there is the expense of carting the wheat, often to a great distance, to a railway or the nearest elevator. The straw is burnt in most partsof Araerica,and where it is not, the expense of grow ing wheat is increased by the labor of manuring the land. If the gross return were all profit, the wheat grower would not become rich very rapidly, and 33s an acre would be only a very moderate profit for a year's labor. The most common size of a farm in America is 80 or 100 acres, and of course not nearly all the land is cropped with wheat in the same year, some of it usually lying fallow. It is a startling fact, that the gross returns of a farmer, getting the average yield from 50 acres of wheat during the last three years, have been less than the earnings of a farm laborer in many States. We have seen that, in the opinion of the Statistician of the Department of Agriculture, only those farmers who have grow n 20 bushels an acre or more have ob- taini'd any profit in recent years. If all llie rest ceasi'd to grow wheat, America would become an importing oountry; and even if the' result of a continuance of present prices were only to cause the cessation of wheat growing on all land which does not produce the present average yield, America would met produce enough to bed her own population. During the decade 1870-80, the population of the United States increased from B8,568,871 to 60,165,788. At the same rate of increase, the number in 1890 will be nearly 65J4 millions. During the five years ending with 1884, the average annual consumption was nearly 324,000,000 bushels, and the average export 140,000,000 bushels. If the production in the five years ending with 18114 does not become greater, all but 43,000,000 per annum, or less than 5>jJ million quarters, will be required for home consumption, and the surplus will not suffice for the increased population of the next five years. Before the end of the present century, then, the present production of wheat in the United States will be Insufficient for home ree]iiirenients,and the people of Europe will have to look elsewhere for that main portion of their foreign supply which now comes to them across the Atlantic. A continuance of recent prices for a few more years would not only prevent that surplus from keeping up to its recent average, but would prevent its production altogether. As already intimated, however, such a result is not to be apprehended, as the increasing demand of the world for wheat must send prices up to a remunerative standard, and then American production will once more advance steadily. Ben. l'erley Poore the veteran journalist died in Washington, I). ('., May 29. He was born in Massachusetts in 1820 and began his journalistic career at the age of 18. He resided in Washington more than 30 years, during which time he performed avast amount of work for various newspapers. Among his writings are "Rise and Fall of Louis Philippe," published in 1648 and "The Conspiracy Trial," given to the world in 1865. * |
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