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VOL. LXI
INDIANAPOLIS, SEPTEMBER 29, 1906.
NO. 39
FUTURE OP THIS COUNTRY.
The  Population   Increasing Paster   Than
Production.
Model Farms   to Influence  Intensive Agriculture the Hope   of the Country.
A Remarkable Address of J. J. Hill.
Population In 1950 204,041,228.
Timber supply exhausted.
Iron ami coal mines depleted.
Mannfacturtng limited.
Tide  to  tne  city  will   turn  back   to   the
farm.
Model farms and Intensive agriculture.
The road to Increased production.
The   example   of   other  nations.
The remarkable address of Mr. James
J. Hill, of the Great Northern railway, at
the recent Minnesota State fair is surely
a key note on agriculture. The address
takes a most comprehensive view of the
future of all the great industries, for
mining and manufaeturing and agriculture
are all linked together iu n large sense.
We have space for only a fair summary of
this great address, and chiefly of that part
of it relating to agrieulture, but note more
briefly his statements based on statistics
and the present knowledge of our other
natural  resources.
1. Mr. Hill begins his address by calling attention to the fact that by the present rate of increase of population, the
United States will have 204,011,223 people
in 1050.
2. That ly that time our timber supply at the present rate of use will be practically exhausted.
3. That at the present rate of consumption iron and coal mines, so far as
now known, will be depleted.
4. That our manufacturing, which is
chiefly based on these natural resources,
will come to a turn in the road.
5. That the great tide- of population
now headed for towns and cities, under
the influence of manufacturing and the
other industries will be compelled to turn
back to the soil and the farm for sustenance.
Elaborating these live propositions with
strong deductions based on statistical
facts relating to each, and quoting the
present rate of consumption aud exhaustion of our known resources of mines and
forests, Mr. Hill proceeds with great
clearness to consider our last hope, that
of agriculture. There is no element of
pessimism in the address, for plain facts
are wholly relied on and quoted. Under
these conditions Mr. Hill says the
Reliance Must be the Soil.
"This Is the sole asset that does not perish, because It contoins within Itself, If not abused, tne
possibility of infinite renewal. All thc life that
exists upon this planet, all the development of
man from his lowest to bis highest qualities, rest
as firmly and as unreservedly upon the capacities
of the soil as do his feet upon the ground beneath him. The soil alone Is capable of self-renewal, through the wasting of the rocks, through
the agency of plant life, through Its chemical reactions with the liquids and gases within and
without It. A self-perpetuating race must rely
upon some self-perpetuating means of support.
Our one resource, therefore, looking at humanity
as something more than the creature of a day, Is
tha productivity of the soil. Aud since that too
may be ralsod to a high power or lowered to the
Point of disappearing value, It U of the first consequence to consider how the. people of the United
States have dealt with this, their greatset safeguard and their choicest dowtv."
Mr. Hill says that ouly half the agricultural lauds are now tilled, nnd that tillage is so indifferent in quality that the
land so cultivated does not produce one-
half of what it might be made to produce.
These indifferent methods of cultivation
have caused deterioration of soil more
than five centuries of proper cultivation
would have caused, and yet we ns a nation
are only a little over a century old. Quoting again from Mr. Hill's address, he
says of
Soil Depletion.
"On the new lands of the West, where once
the wheat yield was from twenty to thirty bushels per acre, It Is now from twelve to eignu-en
Frankly, nnd without shame, this Is attributed to
thc "wenring out" of the soil, as If the earth were
a garment that must be destroyed by tho wearing.
If the earth, the mother of humanity, is to "wear
dred aud fifty, or two hundred millions, within
the lifetime of those now grown to man's estate,
with a potential food supply that falls as the
draft upon it advances. How are these people lo
l«e   red!"
- Intensive Agriculture Needed.
.Mr. Hill lays great stress upon tha importance of intelligent and intensive agriculture, and refers to the great work being done along these lines by the several
agricultural colleges and experiment stations, and says:
"Agriculture in the most intelligent meaning of
tho term is something almost unknown In the
United States. We have a light scratching of the
soil and the gathering of all that it can be made
to yield by the most rapidly exhauatlve methods,
except in Isolated instances, on small tracts here
ami there, farmed by people Bomellmes regarded
as cranks, and at some experiment stations, there,
is no attempt  to deal with the soil seleutlttcally.
"MODEL FARMS."
"The government should establish a small Model Farm in
every rural Congressional District; later perhaps in every
county in the Agricultural States. Let the Department of Agriculture show exactly what can be done on a small tract of
land by proper cultivation, moderate fertilizing and due rotation of crops. The sight of the fields and their contrast with
those of their neighbors, the knowledge of yields secured and
profits possible, would be worth more than all the pamphlets
poured out from the government printing office in years."
J. J. Hill.
out" what is to become of the race? The fact
is that the 9oI1b properly treated maintain their
productiveness indefinitely under cultivation. The
further fact la that, with the disappearance of
pestilence and the discontinuance of war that belong to the future., all contributing to the growth
of populaion, the productive capacity of the Boll
must be sustained at its highest point or the
world suiTer want."
"It Is not ninny years since the favored wbeat-
produclug arojiB of the American Northwest gave
a yield of from twenty-five bushels per acre up>
wards. Now an average of twelve to fifteen is
accepted as satisfactory. Under the stress of
need, by Intelligent cultivation, many of the lands
of Great Britain, cropped for a thousand years,
are made to bear thirty bushels to the acre. The
rich deep soil of our own country, drawn upon for
a few decades, produces about twelve. The same
ratio holds good of other cereals aud of every
product of the field. The sea Islands that once
grew the most famous cotton staple In the world
are virtually abandoned. The people have neglected the preservation of the toll. They take
away  all   and  give  nothing  back.
"Thorough fertilization of the land has no
place In the general work on thc American farm.
.Average American agriculture means the extraction from nature of the greatest Immediate return at the lowest possible outlay of labor or
money, with sublime disregard of consequences.
Except at scattered experiment stations and in
Isolated Instances there is little done In the
United States towards farm economies. Scientific
adaptation of soil to product, intelligent rotation
of crops, diversification of industry, intensive
farming constitute the rare exception and not the
rule. Oily two states in the Union show an
average total value Of farm products in excess
of thirty dollars per acre of Improved land. The
figure for Illinois In 1000 was $12.4S; for North
Carolina $10.72; for Minnesota $8.74. By proper
cultivation these returns could easily be doubled
nnd still leave the soil's resources unimpaired.
The doubling of all products of the farm would
add to the wealth of this country from five to
six billion dollars every year, according to the
crop yield of the season and the range of market
prices. Therefore, and this Is the focal point
of the whole matter, the country i» approaching
the inevitable advent of a population of one hun-
generously or even fairly. In manufactures we
have come to consider small economies so carefully that the difference of a fraction of a cent,
the utilization of a by-product of something
formerly consigned to the scrap heap, makes the
difference. t>etween a profit nnd bankruptcy. In
farming we are satisfied with a small yield at
ihe expeuse of the most rapid soil deterioration.
We Rre satisfied with a national average annual
product of $11.38 per acre, at the cost of a diminishing annual return from the same fields, when
we might Just as well secure from two to three
times   that   sum. Here  Is  a  draft   which    we
may draw upon the future and know that It will
not be dishonored. Ilere Is the occupation In
which the millions of the future may find a happy
nnd contented lot."
He says when the tide again turns to
the soil, under other exhausting natural resources for manufacturing, as it will in
time, we can utilize the surplus population
in agriculture, under intensive methods of
fr.rming adopted in England and other
countries, and increase our annual agricultural products to double the present
yields of $5,000,000,000 in value per year,
to ten nnd even- fifteen billions of dollars
every year.
In this country thc average wheat yield
is about 13 bushels per acre. Great
Britain has an average yield of 30 irashels,
and her soil naturally is much inferior to
ours.
"Some thirty yoars ago the French considered a
crop quite good wlvn It yielded twenty-two bushels to thc acre; but with the same soil the present requirement is at least thirty-three bushels;
while In the best sols the crop Is good only when
It yields from forty-three to forty-night bushels.
and occasionally the product Is as much as fifty.
five  Imis1i,>Ih to the acre."
Some Interesting  Facts.
"Some Interesting facts have been brought out
by the work of the Minnesota State Agricultural
SchooL With  only  ordinary   fertilization,   and
with such culture as *ould be applied to large
areas, the average yield of wheat oj the plots
nuder experiment   for atven  rears  was 26.4  bush
els per acre; of oats 07.2 bushels; of corn 42.8
bushels, and of hay the average for five years waa
;t.91 tons per acre. This was accomplished merely by usiug a system of five year rotation; the
land being treated in Ibis order; corn, wheat,
meadow, pasture, oats. The figures given are
nearly double the average yield from the farms of
the State. There Is therefore no exaggeration
In the statement that our farm production could
lie made two-foal what it Is by the mere application af more careful methods without any Intensive cultivation whatever. If the lands of the
states were cultivated according to a seven year
system of rotation—grain, grain, grass, pasture,
grain, oats, grain—without fertilizers, It Is estimated on good authority that the same amount
of grain would be gathered during the four seasons in which It appears In this regular order as
is now obtained from cropping grain every year.
That is to say, the fanner would obtain at the
end of seven years exactly the same, amount of
grain that he now takes as the entire product of
his fields; while in addition he would have the
Whole amount of other crops and of stock for
which the three seasons of vacation from grain
growing would furnish opportunity. He would,
while preserving the. fertility of his acres and
guarding against soil deterioration, add three-
sevenths to the volume of his material profits.
Such Is the promise of the simplest of all improvements in method."
"A recent report of the department of agriculture cites thc case of a farm In Pennsylvania
which was so exhausted as to be Incapable of prolusion. This little tract of fifteen acres, devoted strictly to dairying and treated each year
ry particle of the natural fertilizers thus
.obtained, produces a revenue of about $3,000 or
$200 per acre annually. There Is no secret in
the process, Just as there la no uncertainty In the
result. And by a combination cf judicious crop
rotation which admits and requires diversification
of farm industry, with careful fertilizing, the
estimate of a doubled money value for the yield
of the present farm area of the United States
would be found under the mark."
Establish Model Farms.
Mr. Hill in his address recognizes the
fact that a few State agricultural
colleges and stations are not sufficient to hurry forward the
great work of developing agriculture, but
claims that model farms should be established for object lessons which would
Quicken agricultural thought and action.
He says:
"The government should establish a small model
farm on its own land In every rural congressional
district, later perhaps in even* county In the agricultural states. Let the Department of Agriculture show exactly what can be done on a small
tract of land by proper cultivation, moderate fertilizing and due rotation of crops. The sight of
the fields and their contrast with those of their'
neighbors, the knowledge of yields secured and
profits possible, would be worth more than all the
pr.mphlets poured oujt from the government printing office In yenrs. The government ought not
to hesitate before the comparatively small expense and labor involved in such a practical encouragement of what Is the most Important Industry of our present and the stay and promise
of our future. Disseminate knowledge of farming as It should and must be, Instead of maintaining the pitiful bribe of a few free seeds. Declare everywhere, from the executive chamber,
from thc editorial office, from the platform, aud
above all from every college classroom and from
every little schoolhouse In the land, the new crusade. Let the zeal for discovery, for experiment, for scientific advancement that have made
the last century one of multiplied wonders focus
itself upon the problems of the oldest of sciences
and arts; the corner-stone of all civilization; the
Improvement of tillage and making to grow two
grains where ouly one grew before. Only thus
may a multiplying population secure its permanent
maintenance. Only thus may the struggle for
existence that has power either to curse or bless
be brought to any other termination than the
peace of death."
The Crop Reporting Board of the Bureau of Statistics of the Department of
Agriculture finds that the condition of
corn on September 1 was 90.2, as compared with 88.1 last month, 89.5 on September 1, 1905, 84.0 at the corresponding
date in 1904, and a ten-year average of
81.