PREDICTING FEDERALLY INSPECTED HOG SLAUGHTER FROM PREDETERMINED VARIABLES
Research Progress Report 3 February 1962
J. H. Stevenson, Agricultural Economics Department
One of the most important determinants of the price of hogs and the price of pork products (hams, bellies, etc.) is the number of hogs slaughtered in a given period. All segments of the swine industry are constantly trying to make better estimates of future supplies.
Forecasts of hog slaughter are not only a key to predicting hog and pork product prices but are also important to various segments of the industry in establishing requirements to handle the supply (i.e,, meat packing firms in setting "kill rates, " etc.).
Importance of Federally Inspected Slaughter
The most commonly accepted measure of hog supply is the numer of hogs slaughtered under federal inspection. Any packing plant which ships pork products in interstate commerce must be federally inspected. Obviously, this includes most of the large packing plants. The percentage of hogs slaughtered under federal inspection has been increas -ing very slightly since World War II and now stands at approximately 84 percent (Table I).
One of the key reasons for the use of federally inspected hog slaughter as the bench-mark for supply as opposed to commercial slaughter (federally inspected plu s non-federally inspected slaughter) is the rapidity and frequency with which it is reported. Data on federally inspected slaughter are released in weekly and monthly totals and are published very quickly in the weekly Mar-ket News, issued by the Livestock Division of the USDA Agricultural Marketing Service.
History of lFederally Inspected Hog "Slaughter
Slaughter can be further broken down into barrow and gilt, and sow slaughter. Since World War II, annual hog slaughter has fluctuated with the hog cycles but has shown an increasing trend (Figure 1). At the same time barrow and gilt slaughter has increased slightly faster than total slaughter, and sow slaughter has remained fairly constant. This has occurred because of multiple farrowing practices and hog producers marketing more pigs per sow in the more recent years.
Table 1. Comparison of commercial and federally inspected hog slaughter, 1948-1960.
Year	Commercial slaughter	FIS	FIS as % of commercial slaughter
1948	' (00.0) 59, 669	47,615	79.8
1949	64,761	53,032	81.9
1950	69,543	56,964	81.9
1951	76,061	62,054	81.6
1952	77,690	62,451	80.4
1953	66,913	53,813	80.4
1954	64,227	52,894	81.7
1955	74,216	61, 370	82.7
1956	78,513	65,748	83.7
1957	72,595	60,682	83.9
1958	70,965	59,462	83.8
1959	81,582	68, 707	84.2
1960	79,036	66,153	83.7
Source: Livestock and Meat Statistics.
PURDUE UNIVERSITY • Agricultural Experiment Station • Lafayette, Indiana