Economic and Marketing INFORMATION 
FOR INDIANA
FARMERS
Lafayette,   Indiana
February 25,   1953
Prepared  by members of the Agricultural  Staff of  Purdue  University
When Should I Sell My Hogs?
by
M.   R.   JANSSEN,   Agricultural   Economics   and   Bureau   of   Agricultural   Economics, U. S. D. A.
IF YOU ARE one of In-
I diana's many hog producers, several times each
year you are faced with
the question: Should I sell
my hogs now, or would I
make more money by
feeding them longer and
selling them at a heavier
weight? You can find an
answer to this question by
estimating the change in
value of your hogs and
comparing it with the added cost of holding them for
a given period.
You can compute the
change in value of a hog by applying seasonal prices
to successive weights. Added feed costs can be computed by applying prevailing prices to the quantities of the various feeds necessary to produce the additional gain. If the additional return from keeping a
hog until it has gained another 25 pounds is greater
than the additional feed cost, then it is profitable to
hold the hog to the heavier weight, provided the
difference in additional net returns is enough to cover
the added work, costs of equipment and risk involved.
Thus, to find his answer, the hog producer is concerned chiefly with (1) the level of hog prices, (2) the
seasonal pattern of hog prices, including the difference in the seasonal pattern among various weights,
and (3) the cost of producing additional gains for
different size  hogs  under varying  conditions.
The purpose of this article is to bring together certain information that will help you in making the
computations mentioned above, and to illustrate their
u*e for  a   selected   situation.
Seasonal Price Changes
Prices of hogs tend to vary throughout the year
ln a seasonal pattern. In addition, various market
weights have different patterns. The average seasonal
price relationships for the
different weight classes
shown in Table 1 are based
upon findings in several
studies made at Purdue
University of hog prices
from 1946-50. The seasonal pattern is adjusted to a
base level of $17.57, which
was the average price per
hundredweight for 200 to
220 pound barrows and
gilts at Indianapolis in December, 1952.
A number of factors may
cause the actual price in
any particular year to deviate from the normal seasonal pattern. For example,
seasonal prices often are affected differently during
different phases of the hog cycle, or the seasonal
pattern in hog prices may be modified by changes in
the general level of prices. Price discounts for heavy
hogs are particularly sensitive to changes in the lard
situation.
Hence, in any season, the changes in value may
be somewhat greater or smaller than indicated by
the computed seasonal prices in Table 1. Adjustments
can be made in Table 1 to conform to your outlook
for hog prices.
Taking an example using prices in Table 1, a hog
weighing 225 pounds on February 14 would sell for
$18.90 per hundredweight, bringing a total of $42.53.
The same hog fed to 250 pounds by February 28
would sell for $17.72 per hundredweight, or a total
of $44.30. Although the gain of 25 pounds would
be worth $4.48, the increase in the total value of the
hog would be only $1.77 because of the seasonal decline in the price per hundredweight between February  14 and  February 28.
Costs of Additional Gain
Feed represents about 80 percent of the total cost