Economic and Marketing INFORMATION 
FOR INDIANA
FARMERS
INFORMATION
Lafayette,  Indiana
April 24,  1953
Prepared by members of the Agricultural Staff of Purdue University
What's Ahead In The Hog Business?
By
J. CARROLL BOTTUM, Agricultural Economics
PROSPECTIVE SUPPLY
and demand conditions
point towards higher average hog prices for the coming summer and winter
than prevailed for the
same period a year earlier.
If business conditions do
not materially weaken,
hog prices during the
spring of 1954 should average not far different
from those prevailing this
spring.
Demand Strong for Next
Few Months
The flow of income to consumers is being maintained at a very high rate with little present indication
of weakening. Governmental outlays for national security are expected to continue to rise for the next
few months. Business expenditures for plant and
equipment appear likely to continue equal to or above
the present levels for the next few months.
No major change from the normal seasonal pattern in supplies of competing meats appears likely
between now and fall. Further weakening of the
Presently very low lard market is not expected. Therefore, it would seem that the demand for pork should
continue strong and result in a normal seasonal summer rise in hog prices (Chart I).
Longer Time Demand Less Certain
The demand for pork during the spring of 1954,
when the 1953 Indiana fall farrowings go to market,
ls largely dependent upon business conditions and
supplies of competing meats at that time. Business
c°nditions then will depend largely upon federal expenditure for national security and private investment for new plants and equipment. Present indications point to a leveling off or a possible small decline
m expenditures for national security in  1954.
Some decline in capital
investment in plant and
equipment expenditures
may also take place. Cattle marketing should continue to increase for the
next two or three years
which will mean some increase in competing beef
supplies. However, if business should continue into
1954 at present levels, the
demand for pork products
should not be far different
in the spring of '54 than
during the spring of 1953.
1953 Total Meat Supplies
With pork output down 12 to 15 percent from the
1952 levels and beef supplies expected up approximately 15 percent, the total supplies of meat should
not be much different in 1953 than in 1952. This assumes no wide-spread drought conditions in 1953
which would force heavier than expected marketings
of cattle.
Changes in exports and imports are not likely to
be a major factor. Storage holdings of meat also are
not an important item in the over-all picture. With
a slightly larger population, the total per capita consumption of beef, veal, pork and lamb should average about 141 pounds for 1953 as compared with
144 in 1952.
Pork Supplies to Continue Near Present Levels
The 1952 fall pig crop, from which hogs will be
marketed through late summer of 1953, was 11 percent smaller than the 1951 fall crop (Chart II). Nearly all of this 11 percent decrease in hog farrowing occurred during the latter four months of the June 1 to
November 30 fall farrowing period. Therefore, marketings during late spring and early summer should
be down more than early spring marketings.