Economic and Marketing INFORMATION 
FOR INDIANA
FARMERS
Lafayette,  Indiana
September  15,   1952
Prepared by members of the Agricultural Staff of Purdue University
little feeding Outlook for 1952-53
by
M.  PAUL MITCHELL, Agricultural Economics
CATTLE FEEDING in the
year ahead can be expected to show more
chances for profit than during the past year, but returns will be well below
the average of the other
post war years.
Although continued
strong demand conditions
are expected, the prospective increased supply of
all slaughter cattle in the
year ahead will cause
prices to average at least
10 percent less than the
average of the year ending October 1, 1952. This is subject to uncertain
seasonal  patterns.
A much larger potential supply of feeder cattle for
the fall months and greater buying caution by cattle
feeders have caused prices on these cattle to drop well
below record levels of a year earlier. Further price
declines are not unlikely, so feeders' profit margins
should be much better than a year ago.
The heavy movement of feeder cattle, which started earlier than usual this year, is expected to continue during the fall and early winter months.
Feed grain production in general is large enough
to make costs of gain in the feed lot comparable to
last year or slightly higher.
Increased production of cattle throughout the nation and poor feed conditions in much of the cattle
country are the principal factors contributing to lower
feeder cattle prices this year than last. Weather conditions during September and October will determine
to a large extent the number of cattle that will move
e'ther to slaughter or to feed lots. However, as of
late August, it appears that the runs will be large
enough to depress prices still further. During the late
summer months, stocker and feeder prices have averted more than $6.00 per ewt. or 20 percent below
a year earlier on the principal feeder markets. Early
c°ntract purchasing   in  the  range  country  has  been
small in volume and at
prices from $6.00 to
$10.00 less than the record
levels of a year earlier.
Cyclical Increase
Cattle   numbers   in   the
U. S. have increased about
15 million head since 1948,
a    new   record.   However,
this may not be as significant as it first appears, because of substantial reductions   in   other   roughage-
consuming livestock, chiefly horses and sheep.   With
feed   supplies   limited   this
year, there is  likely to be some liquidation of stock
cattle from many areas in addition to the natural increase from larger cow herds.
The increase in cattle numbers has not been confined to the western range states. New cattle producing areas of the South as well as more beef cattle in
the Corn Belt will add to the potential supply of feeder cattle this fall.
Drouth Cuts Feed Supplies
Western cattle producing areas have experienced
a year of relatively short feed supplies. Ranges have
been stocked to capacity since early spring. During
the summer months, all of the range states east of
the Rockies have reported below average feed conditions. Several states have had the lowest pasture
conditions since the drouth years of  1934 and   1936.
Increased cattle numbers and a rather severe winter reduced feed reserves in many areas last year.
Needed feed reserves have not been rebuilt under the
weather conditions of the current summer.
The South has fared even worse, with extreme
drouth conditions prevailing during much of the summer. For these reasons, the upswing in the cattle cycle
may be slowed down or halted until more adequate
feed supplies are available. In adjusting to this
situation, substantially  larger  numbers of thin cattle