Economic Marketing and INFORMATION
for INDIANA
FARMERS
Lafayette,   Indiana
April  25,   1952
Prepared by members of the Agricultural Staff of Purdue University
What's Ahead In The Hog Business?
MORE THAN the normal
seasonal rise in hog
prices is expected between
March and the summer
months. With reasonably
strong business conditions
in prospect this summer,
hog prices should be as
high or slightly higher than
last year during the summer and early fall. In case
business conditions turn out
to be stronger than now
anticipated, hog prices
likely will average above
last year's levels. On the
other hand, if business conditions are not as strong as
now expected, hog prices
may not quite reach the
previous year's levels.
by
J. CARROLL BOTTUM, Agricultural Economics
Prices of All Barrows and Gilts, Indianapolis
A downward adjustment in hog numbers is in prospect and continued active business conditions are expected to extend into 1953. Therefore, it would appear that pigs from sows bred to farrow this fall
should move at prices that would make the hog enterprise reasonably profitable, barring a 1952 short corn
crop.
February and March Receipts Unusually Large
A bunching of hog receipts at the markets during
February and March resulted in an almost unprecedented price decline from the December and
January levels (Table I). The average price for all
barrows and gilts at Indianapolis fell from above the
$18.00 level in December to below the $17.00 level
ln March.
From August to the last week in January marketings were nearly in line with the 7 percent increase
m the 1951 spring pig crop (Table I). However, dur-
'n9 February receipts exceeded the previous year by
percent and for the first three weeks of March exceeded the previous year by more than   13  percent.
Several factors have contributed to this bunching
receipts.   A more than proportional increase in the
farrowings in 1951 occurred during May, June, and
July. This made more than
the normal number of pigs
available for February
and March marketing. Both
the number of hogs marketed in January and the
weights of the hogs coming to market in February
indicate some hogs that
normally would have gone
in January were carried
over into February.
Because of the unfavorable feeding ratios, some
liquidation of hogs has
also taken place. Increased use of the newer supplements has probably advanced the marketing of
early farrowed fall pigs. The soft corn situation in
the western corn belt also tended to add to the bunching of receipts. Most of the decline in price during
January and February can be explained by these
heavy receipts rather than less demand for pork products.   See Table  I.
Meat Storage Stocks Up—Lard Down
Storage stocks of pork at the end of February stood
at 786 million pounds compared to 642 million pounds
last February and 585 million pounds for the 1947-
51 five-year average. Lard stocks on the other hand,
were 52 million pounds at the end of February compared to 88 million pounds last year and 119 million
pounds  for the  five-year average.
Beef stocks in storage at the end of February equalled 251 million pounds as compared to 149 million
pounds the year previous. All of this increase in beef
stocks was in frozen beef. Thus, more than normal
supplies of both pork and lower quality of beef will
be available to move out of storage during the summer season of short meat supplies.
(Continued on page 3)