Economic and Marketing Information
FOR
INDIANA
FARMERS
Lafayette,   Indiana
February  23,   1948
Prepared   by  members  of the Agricultural  Staff  of  Purdue  University
THE POULTRY AND EGG OUTLOOK
By
G.  B. WOOD, Agricultural Economics
POULTRY AND EGG feed
ratios in Indiana during the last quarter of
1947 were the most unfavorable for any similar
quarter on record. This
situation has caused Indiana poultrymen to look at
their plans for 1948 with
a critical eye. Some have
culled more heavily than
normal. Others are undecided  as to  what  number
of chicks to buy within the 
next few months. A review 
of the demand and supply factors may prove helpful
to poultrymen  in  deciding  what and  when to do  it.
Demand Prospects Strong
The demand for poultry and eggs is affected
chiefly by the level of consumer incomes and by the
relative prices of food and other commodities. Inflationary forces are still strong. Indications are that
consumer incomes may average somewhat above
present levels during 1948. However, it seems likely
that the general level of prices is near an inflationary
peak.
If the price level does turn downward in 1948,
agricultural prices will be in a vulnerable position
and will fall faster and farther than non-farm prices.
For this reason, there is more lhan a normal risk in
planning the poultry enterprise for 1948.
For several years during the war, consumers found
it advantageous to substitute poultry and eggs for
red meat. This situation may repeat itself this year in
view of the reduction of 13 pounds per person in
meat supplies forecast in 1948. Prices of red meats
may be higher in 1948 than in 1947. Therefore, many
consumers may find poultry and eggs to be "good
buys" this year.
Any shift in consumer demand from red meats to
poultry and eggs will favor the poultry producer. It
now  looks  as  if  egg   prices  will   average  higher  in
it over.
1948 than  in  1947.
During the past 10
years, egg prices in Indiana have averaged about
50 per cent higher in the
fall than in the spring.
With smaller egg and meat
supplies forecast for this
year, the price increase between the spring and fall
months may be greater
than the 10 year average.
The poultryman who has
eggs to sell next fall stands
a good chance of hitting a
profitable  market.
Poultry meat prices should strengthen as meat
supplies become shorter. Prices should be higher in
1948 than during the past year. The demand for
broilers should keep broiler prices at or near present
levels at least through June of this year.
Feed Costs
The relatively high price of feed is the most discouraging   factor   in   the   poultry   and   egg   picture.
If the recent break in feed prices proves to be
permanent, it will be encouraging to poultrymen.
However, it seems likely that there will be some
recovery in feed prices from  mid-February levels.
It is impossible to predict the weather during the
growing season. What is most likely to occur in 1948
is a crop somewhere near average. With a feed
crop equal to 1947, or better, feeding ratios in the
last half of 1948 will be more favorable than in the
last half of 1947. Egg feed ratios are expected to
be more favorable than poultry feed ratios during
1948.
Hatch To Be Down
Most poultrymen base their future plans upon
current price-cost relationships and not upon prospective conditions when the eggs and poultry will be
(Continued   on   page   5)