Economic and Marketing Information
FOR INDIANA  FARMERS
Prepared by the Agricultural Staff of Purdue University, Lafayette, Indiana                                                                                                             August 31,   1971
The Soybean Market Situation: Record Crop Expected
by  W.  S.  Farris,  Agricultural  Economics
1 HE BIGGEST CROP in history along with expected high prices should keep Indiana soybean
producers happy during 1971-72. However, record
crops at both the national and state levels will still
leave a relatively tight supply situation for the year
ahead as both domestic and export demand remain
strong. Harvest prices in Indiana are expected to
be slightly below mid-August levels ($3.05 - $3.15
range). The support rate ($2.25 per bushel national
average) will not be a major factor in pricing the
1971 crop.
Record Crop but Total Supplies Down  1   Per Cent
U. S. production was estimated at 1,235 million
bushels as of August 1. This is nearly 9 per cent
larger than last year's crop and 17 per cent above
the average of the last 5 years. The yield is forecast
at a record 28.8 bushels per acre versus 26.8 bushels
per acre last year.
Indiana's 1971 soybean crop is expected to total
111 million bushels with an average yield of 33
bushels per acre.
Total soybean supplies are estimated to be about
1 per cent below last year's supplies. The reason
for this slight decrease is that even with a 1970
record crop, carryover stocks are down by about
110 million bushels from last year. Demand for
soybeans and soybean products remained very
strong throughout the 1970-71 year, and the 1970
crop plus about half the carryover stocks moved at
relatively high prices.
Soybean Utilization to Continue High
The use of soybeans has increased an average
of about 8 per cent per year since 1965. However,
utilization of the 1970 crop will be up only about
2 per cent above the previous year.   The increase
probably slowed because of relatively high prices.
Utilization of the 1971 crop is expected to be up
only slightly from the past year (2-3 per cent).
Crushings of soybeans are estimated to be about
750 million bushels next season, and exports will
probably total about 460 million bushels. The comparative supply and use situation for the 1970 and
1971 soybean crops is summarized as follows:
Supply
Carryover Sept<
Production
?mber 1
1970-71
(million
230
1136
1971-72 (
bushels)
120
1235
est.)
Total supply
1366
1355
Utilization
Crushings
Exports
735 (est.)
445  (est.)
46Q
Feed seed & residual
Total
Stocks on September 1
66 (est.)
1246 (est.)
120 (est.)
70
1280
75
Soybean Prices to Remain High
Prices for soybeans received by U. S. farmers
during the 1970-71 marketing year averaged about
$2.90 per bushel. Prices received by Indiana farmers
averaged about the same. Farm prices in Indiana
in mid-August were quoted in the $3.05-$3.15 range.
It is expected that harvest prices will average 10-20
cents below this range if good harvest weather prevails and a large volume of soybeans reaches the
market during late September and early October.
The expected smaller carryover next September
may result in slightly more than average seasonal
price increases which will probably more than cover
storage costs. With a relatively tight supply situation prices are likely to be erratic at times, and
there exists the possibility of much larger than average price increases during the year.
Cooperative  Extension  Work  in  Agriculture and  Home   Economics,  State of   Indiana,  Purdue  University and  U.  S.  Department of
Agriculture Cooperating. H. G. Diesslin, Director, Lafayette, Ind.   Issued in furtherance of the Acts of May 8 and June 30,  1914.