Economic and Marketing Information
FOR INDIANA  FARMERS
Prepared by the Agricultural Staff of Purdue University, Lafayette, Indiana    
May 31,  1968
THE WORLD WHEAT SITUATION
W. S. Farris, Agricultural Economics
The 1968 world wheat crop is expected to approach record levels. This means that total production for the year will probably be 10 to 10.5
billion bushels. The record was 10.5 billion bushels
in 1966. The large 1966 crop resulted in surplus
stocks in some countries, and the effects of those
stocks are still being felt in world wheat trade.
Wheat prices were down 20-30 cents per bushel in
world markets as of May 1, 1968, compared to a
year earlier. U.S. dark northern spring wheat
with 14 percent protein was quoted $1.88 per
bushel at Rotterdam versus $2.08 a year earlier.
Also at Rotterdam, U.S. No. 2 soft red winter was
$1.60 per bushel compared to $1.90 last year at
the same date.
Stocks of Wheat in Main Exporting Countries
The major wheat exporters, the United States,
Canada, Argentina, and Australia, had about 2.2
billion bushels of wheat available for export as of
January 1. Comparable supplies were about 2.0
billion for the two previous years. Australia was
the only one of the four with smaller supplies, but
this was after a bumper 1966 crop which put
Australian stocks at record levels.
Through March, 1968, U.S. wheat export totaled 595 million bushels, up slightly from the
same months of the previous year. Canadian exports were only about half the previous year, but
commitments to communist countries will increase
this level substantially prior to the 1968 harvest.
Argentina was virtually out of the export market
until recent months when the new crop (December, 1967, harvest) began moving into world
trade. Australian exports through March, 1968,
were 195 million bushels, 23 million above the
same period a year earlier.
In addition to the four major wheat exporters,
France supplies wheat in substantial quantities
to the EEC countries, the United Kingdom and
eastern European countries including the USSR.
Because of relatively good crops in Europe last
year, France has moved wheat to other markets
such as communist China, Latin America and
Africa.
Prospects For the 1968 Crop
The 1968 world wheat crop may be below the
record of 10.5 billion bushels but is estimated to
approach this level. The Australian and Argentine crops (already harvested) were up about 120
million bushels and 50 million bushels respectively, and it appears that 1968 plantings in these
countries will exceed the 1967 plantings. Canada
indicated a 2.6 percent reduction in 1968 acreage,
but the expected carryover of about 600 million
bushels on August 1 is sufficient to supply the
usual season's export and domestic requirements,
leaving the 1968 production as exportable surplus.
The wheat crop in western Europe appears in
good condition, and even though acreage is down
about 5 percent from the two preceding years, the
crop may still approach record levels.
The U.S. wheat crop is estimated to total about
1.5 billion bushels, with the winter wheat crop
expected to account for 1.2 billion bushels of the
crop.
Production of soft red winter wheat, the type
grown in Indiana, will likely be 240 to 245 million
bushels this year, 35 to 40 million bushels below
the 1967 crop. Indiana's crop is estimated at about
41 million bushels down 15 percent from last
year's crop.
Wheat Price Prospects
Wheat prices received by U.S. farmers for the
1967 crop averaged about 15 cents above the national support level of $1.25 per pushel. Indiana's