Economic and Marketing Information
FOR INDIANA   FARMERS
Prepared by the Agricultural Staff of Purdue University, Lafayette, Indiana
April   30,   1965
Long Run Outlook For Hogs In Indiana
by J. E. Kadlec and J. C. Bottum, Agricultural Economics
The outlook for hogs for Indiana
farmer's competitive position relative
mainly on three factors (1) the outlook for the pork industry; (2) Indiana's position in the U. S. with
respect to hog production costs and
hog prices; and (3) The individual
farmer's competitive position relative
to other hog farmers.
Outlook for the Pork Industry1
The demand for pork appears likely to increase about one percent per
year between now and 1970. While
pork consumption per person will
probably continue to decrease, population increase will more than offset
this decline.
Per capita consumption of pork has
declined at the rate of 0.7 percent per
year from 1947 through 1962. Most
of this decline occurred early in the
period and year-to-year consumption
shows no definite trend since 1954.
Several factors that appear to have
contributed to the decline in pork
consumption may have largely run
their course. Population migration
from farm to cities is likely to take
place at a reduced rate. Quality improvement may also moderate the decline in demand for pork.
A part of the increase in demand
for beef relative to pork in recent
years has been attributed to the increased use of home freezers, desirable display attributes of beef for self-
service meat retailing and increased
retail promotion of beef. If they have
had   an  adverse  effect  on   pork  de-
1 The first two sections of this report
draw heavily from a paper presented by
Gene A. Futrell, August 20, 1964, at the
Midwest Regional Agricultural Outlook
Conference, Purdue University. "Hog Situation and Outlook," Iowa State Extension
Service Paper M-984, August 12, 1964.
mand, these factors may have already
exerted their greatest influence. However, continued increases in personal
income will result in increased consumer preference for beef and continued decreases in pork consumption
per person.
The consumer's concern about fat
in the diet will continue to be a factor
affecting the consumption of pork. It
does not seem likely however that the
rate of decline will be greater than
the .7 percent experienced during the
1947-62 period.
If one accepts this rate of decline
in consumption per person and the
Bureau of Census Series III intermediate population projection for
1970 of 209 million people, total pork
consumption in 1970 would be about
12,400 million pounds compared to
1962 consumption of about 11,700
(Figure 1). This projection assumes
that foreign demand for U. S. pork
and pork products will continue to
increase at least as rapidly as the domestic market during the next five
years.
The advances in technology of feed
grain production and in the technology of hog production appear likely
to keep pork production costs competitive with other meat products. In
other words, it appears likely that
pork will at least hold its own competitively with other meat products
from the standpoint of cost per unit
to consumers.
Year
Figure 1. Total pork consumption, 1955 to 1962 with projection to 1970. Source of data,
Agricultural Statistics 1963.