March 29, 1957
Economic and Marketing Information
FOR INDIANA  FARMERS
Hog Outlook '57-'58
Stronger Hog Prices Just Ahead; Weaker in Fall
by J. CARROLL BOTTUM and  PATRICK J.  LUBY, Agricultural  Economics
HOG PRICES are expected to
strengthen during the next few
months reaching a peak between late
May and early July slightly above last
summer's highest prices of about $18
(average price of barrows and gilts
at Indianapolis). Increased late spring
and summer farrowings are likely to
bring prices by next November and
December to fluctuate mostly between
$13 and $16. Likely increases in fall
\arrowings will result in increased
marketings during the first three
months of 1958 and prices fluctuating
at the $14 to $17 level.
Spring and Summer Price Outlook
Declining receipts during the next
few months should cause hog prices
to strengthen at least into late May or
June. Storage holdings of pork, 40
percent below last year and at a record low for this time of the year, will
be a bullish factor in hog prices this
spring and early summer. Average
prices this summer should be near
that of a year ago, probably averag-
mg higher in early summer and lower in late summer. The average price
of barrows and gilts at Indianapolis
fluctuated between $16 and $17 dur-
mg most of the time from May to
October last year. For butcher hogs
which can be made to reach market
heights by June or later this summer.
,[ appears that feeding for fastest pos-
s'ble gains will be profitable.
Changes in Supply Dominant Factor
in Next Year's Hog Prices
There is little evidence at the preset time of any significant change in
consumer demand for farm products
including pork and lard during the
next twelve months when hogs now
on farms or pigs from sows now being bred will go to market. Continued
heavy supplies of most grades of cattle, as well as poultry, are in prospect,
although no extreme changes in the
supply of these competing meats are
probable unless more serious drouth
conditions affect cattle marketings.
Thus, most changes in hog prices
during the next year will probably be
brought about by changes in the
supply of hogs rather than by changes
in the demand for pork.
Decline  in  Hog  Farrowings
Appears Over
The decline in hog farrowings as
compared with a year earlier which
began in Februarv. 1956, when far-
rowings fell below the previous year's
levels appears over. Strength in winter hog prices which resulted in a
rise of over $4 per cwt. from  mid-
November until mid-January and a
continued low corn price as a result
of a release of considerable government stored corn have combined to
bring about the second most favorable December - January hog - corn
feeding ratio in eight years. An analysis of past experience indicates
that this rise in the feeding ratio
from the September to November period usually results in an increase of
about 3 to 5 percent more farrowings
during the spring months than was
indicated by farmers' intentions on
December 1. Thus, the expected
change from December 1 intentions
I—2 percent) would bring about an
increase in farrowings of about 1 to
3 percent over last spring. This would
mark the end of a short hog cycle.
Past Hog Cycle Shorter Than
Normal
The  increasing  phase  of  the  last
farrowing cycle began in December.