Economic and Marketing Information for Indiana Farmers (Mar. 29, 1957) |
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March 29, 1957 Economic and Marketing Information FOR INDIANA FARMERS Hog Outlook '57-'58 Stronger Hog Prices Just Ahead; Weaker in Fall by J. CARROLL BOTTUM and PATRICK J. LUBY, Agricultural Economics HOG PRICES are expected to strengthen during the next few months reaching a peak between late May and early July slightly above last summer's highest prices of about $18 (average price of barrows and gilts at Indianapolis). Increased late spring and summer farrowings are likely to bring prices by next November and December to fluctuate mostly between $13 and $16. Likely increases in fall \arrowings will result in increased marketings during the first three months of 1958 and prices fluctuating at the $14 to $17 level. Spring and Summer Price Outlook Declining receipts during the next few months should cause hog prices to strengthen at least into late May or June. Storage holdings of pork, 40 percent below last year and at a record low for this time of the year, will be a bullish factor in hog prices this spring and early summer. Average prices this summer should be near that of a year ago, probably averag- mg higher in early summer and lower in late summer. The average price of barrows and gilts at Indianapolis fluctuated between $16 and $17 dur- mg most of the time from May to October last year. For butcher hogs which can be made to reach market heights by June or later this summer. ,[ appears that feeding for fastest pos- s'ble gains will be profitable. Changes in Supply Dominant Factor in Next Year's Hog Prices There is little evidence at the preset time of any significant change in consumer demand for farm products including pork and lard during the next twelve months when hogs now on farms or pigs from sows now being bred will go to market. Continued heavy supplies of most grades of cattle, as well as poultry, are in prospect, although no extreme changes in the supply of these competing meats are probable unless more serious drouth conditions affect cattle marketings. Thus, most changes in hog prices during the next year will probably be brought about by changes in the supply of hogs rather than by changes in the demand for pork. Decline in Hog Farrowings Appears Over The decline in hog farrowings as compared with a year earlier which began in Februarv. 1956, when far- rowings fell below the previous year's levels appears over. Strength in winter hog prices which resulted in a rise of over $4 per cwt. from mid- November until mid-January and a continued low corn price as a result of a release of considerable government stored corn have combined to bring about the second most favorable December - January hog - corn feeding ratio in eight years. An analysis of past experience indicates that this rise in the feeding ratio from the September to November period usually results in an increase of about 3 to 5 percent more farrowings during the spring months than was indicated by farmers' intentions on December 1. Thus, the expected change from December 1 intentions I—2 percent) would bring about an increase in farrowings of about 1 to 3 percent over last spring. This would mark the end of a short hog cycle. Past Hog Cycle Shorter Than Normal The increasing phase of the last farrowing cycle began in December.
Object Description
Title | Economic and Marketing Information for Indiana Farmers (Mar. 29, 1957) |
Purdue Identification Number | UA14-13-econ195703 |
Date of Original | 1957 |
Publisher | Purdue University. Agricultural Extension Service |
Subjects (LCSH) |
Farm produce--Indiana--Marketing Agriculture--Economic aspects--Indiana |
Genre | Periodical |
Collection Title | Extension Economic & Marketing Information (Purdue University. Agricultural Extension) |
Rights | Copyright Purdue University. All rights reserved. |
Coverage | United States - Indiana |
Type | text |
Format | JP2 |
Language | eng |
Repository | Purdue University Libraries |
Date Digitized | 03/11/2015 |
Digitization Specifications | Original scanned at 400 ppi on a BookEye 3 scanner using Opus software. Display images generated in Contentdm as JP2000s; file format for archival copy is uncompressed TIF format. |
URI | UA14-13-econ195703.tif |
Description
Title | Economic and Marketing Information for Indiana Farmers (Mar. 29, 1957) |
Purdue Identification Number | UA14-13-econ195703 |
Transcript | March 29, 1957 Economic and Marketing Information FOR INDIANA FARMERS Hog Outlook '57-'58 Stronger Hog Prices Just Ahead; Weaker in Fall by J. CARROLL BOTTUM and PATRICK J. LUBY, Agricultural Economics HOG PRICES are expected to strengthen during the next few months reaching a peak between late May and early July slightly above last summer's highest prices of about $18 (average price of barrows and gilts at Indianapolis). Increased late spring and summer farrowings are likely to bring prices by next November and December to fluctuate mostly between $13 and $16. Likely increases in fall \arrowings will result in increased marketings during the first three months of 1958 and prices fluctuating at the $14 to $17 level. Spring and Summer Price Outlook Declining receipts during the next few months should cause hog prices to strengthen at least into late May or June. Storage holdings of pork, 40 percent below last year and at a record low for this time of the year, will be a bullish factor in hog prices this spring and early summer. Average prices this summer should be near that of a year ago, probably averag- mg higher in early summer and lower in late summer. The average price of barrows and gilts at Indianapolis fluctuated between $16 and $17 dur- mg most of the time from May to October last year. For butcher hogs which can be made to reach market heights by June or later this summer. ,[ appears that feeding for fastest pos- s'ble gains will be profitable. Changes in Supply Dominant Factor in Next Year's Hog Prices There is little evidence at the preset time of any significant change in consumer demand for farm products including pork and lard during the next twelve months when hogs now on farms or pigs from sows now being bred will go to market. Continued heavy supplies of most grades of cattle, as well as poultry, are in prospect, although no extreme changes in the supply of these competing meats are probable unless more serious drouth conditions affect cattle marketings. Thus, most changes in hog prices during the next year will probably be brought about by changes in the supply of hogs rather than by changes in the demand for pork. Decline in Hog Farrowings Appears Over The decline in hog farrowings as compared with a year earlier which began in Februarv. 1956, when far- rowings fell below the previous year's levels appears over. Strength in winter hog prices which resulted in a rise of over $4 per cwt. from mid- November until mid-January and a continued low corn price as a result of a release of considerable government stored corn have combined to bring about the second most favorable December - January hog - corn feeding ratio in eight years. An analysis of past experience indicates that this rise in the feeding ratio from the September to November period usually results in an increase of about 3 to 5 percent more farrowings during the spring months than was indicated by farmers' intentions on December 1. Thus, the expected change from December 1 intentions I—2 percent) would bring about an increase in farrowings of about 1 to 3 percent over last spring. This would mark the end of a short hog cycle. Past Hog Cycle Shorter Than Normal The increasing phase of the last farrowing cycle began in December. |
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