Economic and Marketing Information
FOR INDIANA  FARMERS
Prepared by the Agricultural Staff of Purdue University, Lafayette, Indiana
February 27,   1958
INDIANA   FARMERS
The 1958 Poultry Outlool
by R. D. DARLEY and R. L. KOHLS, Agricultural Economics
EGGS
Returns from egg production during the first half
of 1958 are expected to be greater than 1957. Returns
during the last part of 1958 probably will be below
1957 levels.
returns through  June
The 18-percent decrease in the number of egg-type
chick replacements purchased during 1957 resulted
in a 4-percent decrease in the number of layers on
farms, February 1, 1958, from a year ago.
The decrease in numbers of layers is partially offset by an increased rate of lay. Thus, egg supplies
are expected to remain about 2-percent below the
first-half of 1957. These lower supplies coupled with
a relatively unchanged consumer demand should result in Indiana Grade A egg prices through June
averaging 2-4 cents per dozen higher than the 27-
cent average level which prevailed during the first
half of 1957.
Further, a 7-percent increase in the nation's total
feed grain and concentrate production during 1957
has resulted in lower feed prices. The mid-January
Indiana laying ration averaged $4.10 per hundred
pounds or 5-percent below a year earlier.
Therefore, the Indiana egg-feed ratio (pounds of
feed that would be purchased with the value of a
dozen eggs) for January, 1958 was 11.1 which is 34
percent better than in January 1957, and four percent above the November, 1946, to October, 1950,
period.
This improved egg price situation coupled with
lower feed costs during the first half of 1958 should
result in the highest returns that egg producers have
received for this period in the past several years.
late 1958  returns
The relatively favorable egg-feed ratio is likely
to increase the number of egg-type chick replacements during the first half of 1958. The December
hatch was 12 percent over a year earlier, and eggs
in incubators on January 1, 1958, were estimated at
10 percent above a year before.
The number of replacements purchased is likely
to exceed the 4-percent level, the number needed
to replace older hens currently in the laying flock.
This consideration coupled with the higher rate of
jay, provided by the increased proportion of pullets
in the laying flock, is expected to result in fall egg
supplies being heavier than during the last part of
1957.
Earlier and increased  numbers  of egg-type re
placements might bring a peak in egg prices several
weeks earlier than the mid-October peak last year
and will probably be below 1957 levels for the rest
of the year with egg-feed ratio and net returns also
lower.
BROILERS
_ 1958 will be another record year for broiler production and prices are expected to average slightly below 1957 levels for most of the year. However, lower
feed costs and increased efficiencies within the
highly integrated broiler industry could result in
returns  approximating  1957  levels.
first half of 1958
Supplies of broilers during the first quarter of
1958 are scheduled to be 8-10 percent above a year
earlier. Heavier than usual mortality rates during
January have caused broiler prices to be about two
cents above a year ago. However, broiler prices
during the first half of the year are expected to be
slightly below 1957 levels; prices during most of
the first half will probably be below 1957 levels by
about the same percentage that marketings remain
above. Thus, Indiana broiler prices should average
slightly below the 1957 first half average of 20.1
cents.
The Indiana broiler-feed ratio of 4.5 during January was 18 percent better than a year ago. However, if the somewhat lower broiler prices expected
for most of the first half of 1958 are coupled with
lower feed costs, net returns from broiler production could about equal those received during the
comparable period in 1957.
last half of  1958
Placements from March through May will probably continue at levels well above 1957. When these
increased supplies of broilers are marketed this
summer with increased supplies of other young
chickens, a substantial reduction in price will probably be required to move this production into consumption channels. Therefore, Indiana prices are
expected to be below the 21.7 cent average of last
year's third quarter. In this case, the third or "most
profitable" quarter might become just a "breakeven" period, and this could affect the entire 1958
broiler profit situation unfavorably.
Expected lower feed costs along with increased
efficiencies in broiler production might result in
returns nearly equal to those of a year earlier. This
(Continued on Page 4)