Economic and Marketing Information for Indiana Farmers (Apr. 28, 1958) |
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Economic and Marketing Information FOR INDIANA FARMERS Prepared by the Agricultural Staff of Purdue University, Lafayette, Indiana Hog Outlook by JOHN O. DUNBAR and J. CARROLL BOTTUM, Agricultural Economics The hog production cycle has turned upward. Even though production and marketings will increase and prices will tend to weaken after mid-year, a favorable hog-corn feeding ratio appears likely for the year ahead. Late 1959 and early 1960 appear as the critical period for hog producers to watch. farrowings to increase As a result of the favorable feeding ratios (above 13.6 to 1) which existed in 1957, farmers are now increasing hog numbers. USDA forecast for this spring (December 1957 through May 1958) indicates a six percent increase in farrowings over a year ago. Owing in part to the trend toward earlier farrowing, the early spring farrowings (December- February) in 10 Corn Belt states were estimated 15 percent over a year earlier. For March through May, however, the indicated in crease in farrowings is only one percent over a year earlier. According to the March USDA survey, farmers in the 10 corn belt states have indicated that they will farrow 13 percent more sows this fall (June-December) than they did last fall. If the hog-corn ratio continues favorable through the last half of 1958, and it now appears that it will, barring drought or a definite change in CCC loan and storage policies which would materially affect corn prices, a further increase in farrowings can be expected in the spring of 1959. the demand situation The current business recession is likely to result in only moderately lower consumer disposable income for the remainder of this year compared with a year earlier. Therefore, unless unemployment increases considerably above current levels (5.2 million), the effect of the reduction in busi- mnnriiTrinTjTii INDIANA FARMERS ness activity on demand for pork will be only moderate. Owing to anticipated reduction in marketings of beef, total supplies of beef per capita for 1958 are expected to be down about five percent. This should result in somewhat stronger demand for pork as a substitute—enough to offset expected reductions in consumer purchasing power. summer and fall price outlook The estimated six percent increase in sows to farrow December 1957 through May 1958 compared to a year earlier points to a six percent increase in hog marketings for the summer and fall months this year compared to last. However, with more gilts and sows being saved back to increase breeding herds, the increase in total hogs coming to market may be slightly less than six percent. This increase in hog marketings is expected to cause hog prices to average $1-2 lower than last year for the summer and fall months. Total pork stocks on February 28, 1958, were 233 million pounds or 30 percent less than last year, but this is expected to add little strength to hog prices. For the period May through August last year, monthly average price of all barrows and gilts at Indianapolis was $20.16 per cwt., ranging from $18.47 per cwt. in May to $21.32 in August. With the large increase in early spring farrowings (December to February) expected to bring substantially increased marketings after June this year, prices are likely to average lower for July and August than for May and June. prices late 1958 and early 1959 Although 1958 spring farrowings are estimated to increase six (Continued Page 5, Col. 1)
Object Description
Title | Economic and Marketing Information for Indiana Farmers (Apr. 28, 1958) |
Purdue Identification Number | UA14-13-econ195804 |
Date of Original | 1958 |
Publisher | Purdue University. Agricultural Extension Service |
Subjects (LCSH) |
Farm produce--Indiana--Marketing Agriculture--Economic aspects--Indiana |
Genre | Periodical |
Collection Title | Extension Economic & Marketing Information (Purdue University. Agricultural Extension) |
Rights | Copyright Purdue University. All rights reserved. |
Coverage | United States - Indiana |
Type | text |
Format | JP2 |
Language | eng |
Repository | Purdue University Libraries |
Date Digitized | 03/12/2015 |
Digitization Specifications | Original scanned at 400 ppi on a BookEye 3 scanner using Opus software. Display images generated in Contentdm as JP2000s; file format for archival copy is uncompressed TIF format. |
URI | UA14-13-econ195804.tif |
Description
Title | Economic and Marketing Information for Indiana Farmers (Apr. 28, 1958) |
Purdue Identification Number | UA14-13-econ195804 |
Transcript | Economic and Marketing Information FOR INDIANA FARMERS Prepared by the Agricultural Staff of Purdue University, Lafayette, Indiana Hog Outlook by JOHN O. DUNBAR and J. CARROLL BOTTUM, Agricultural Economics The hog production cycle has turned upward. Even though production and marketings will increase and prices will tend to weaken after mid-year, a favorable hog-corn feeding ratio appears likely for the year ahead. Late 1959 and early 1960 appear as the critical period for hog producers to watch. farrowings to increase As a result of the favorable feeding ratios (above 13.6 to 1) which existed in 1957, farmers are now increasing hog numbers. USDA forecast for this spring (December 1957 through May 1958) indicates a six percent increase in farrowings over a year ago. Owing in part to the trend toward earlier farrowing, the early spring farrowings (December- February) in 10 Corn Belt states were estimated 15 percent over a year earlier. For March through May, however, the indicated in crease in farrowings is only one percent over a year earlier. According to the March USDA survey, farmers in the 10 corn belt states have indicated that they will farrow 13 percent more sows this fall (June-December) than they did last fall. If the hog-corn ratio continues favorable through the last half of 1958, and it now appears that it will, barring drought or a definite change in CCC loan and storage policies which would materially affect corn prices, a further increase in farrowings can be expected in the spring of 1959. the demand situation The current business recession is likely to result in only moderately lower consumer disposable income for the remainder of this year compared with a year earlier. Therefore, unless unemployment increases considerably above current levels (5.2 million), the effect of the reduction in busi- mnnriiTrinTjTii INDIANA FARMERS ness activity on demand for pork will be only moderate. Owing to anticipated reduction in marketings of beef, total supplies of beef per capita for 1958 are expected to be down about five percent. This should result in somewhat stronger demand for pork as a substitute—enough to offset expected reductions in consumer purchasing power. summer and fall price outlook The estimated six percent increase in sows to farrow December 1957 through May 1958 compared to a year earlier points to a six percent increase in hog marketings for the summer and fall months this year compared to last. However, with more gilts and sows being saved back to increase breeding herds, the increase in total hogs coming to market may be slightly less than six percent. This increase in hog marketings is expected to cause hog prices to average $1-2 lower than last year for the summer and fall months. Total pork stocks on February 28, 1958, were 233 million pounds or 30 percent less than last year, but this is expected to add little strength to hog prices. For the period May through August last year, monthly average price of all barrows and gilts at Indianapolis was $20.16 per cwt., ranging from $18.47 per cwt. in May to $21.32 in August. With the large increase in early spring farrowings (December to February) expected to bring substantially increased marketings after June this year, prices are likely to average lower for July and August than for May and June. prices late 1958 and early 1959 Although 1958 spring farrowings are estimated to increase six (Continued Page 5, Col. 1) |
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