Economic and Marketing Information
FOR INDIANA  FARMERS
Prepared by the Agricultural Staff of Purdue University, Lafayette, Indiana
Hog Outlook
by
JOHN O. DUNBAR and J. CARROLL BOTTUM, Agricultural Economics
The hog production cycle has
turned upward. Even though production and marketings will increase and prices will tend to
weaken after mid-year, a favorable hog-corn feeding ratio appears likely for the year ahead.
Late 1959 and early 1960 appear
as the critical period for hog producers to watch.
farrowings to increase
As a result of the favorable
feeding ratios (above 13.6 to 1)
which existed in 1957, farmers
are now increasing hog numbers.
USDA forecast for this spring
(December 1957 through May
1958) indicates a six percent increase in farrowings over a year
ago.
Owing in part to the trend toward earlier farrowing, the early
spring farrowings (December-
February) in 10 Corn Belt states
were estimated 15 percent over a
year earlier. For March through
May, however, the indicated in
crease in farrowings is only one
percent over a year earlier.
According to the March USDA
survey, farmers in the 10 corn
belt states have indicated that
they will farrow 13 percent more
sows this fall (June-December)
than they did last fall.
If the hog-corn ratio continues
favorable through the last half of
1958, and it now appears that it
will, barring drought or a definite
change in CCC loan and storage
policies which would materially
affect corn prices, a further increase in farrowings can be expected in the spring of 1959.
the demand situation
The current business recession
is likely to result in only moderately lower consumer disposable
income for the remainder of this
year compared with a year
earlier. Therefore, unless unemployment increases considerably
above current levels (5.2 million),
the effect of the reduction in busi-
mnnriiTrinTjTii
INDIANA  FARMERS
ness activity on demand for pork
will be only moderate.
Owing to anticipated reduction
in marketings of beef, total supplies of beef per capita for 1958
are expected to be down about
five percent. This should result in
somewhat stronger demand for
pork as a substitute—enough to
offset expected reductions in consumer purchasing power.
summer and fall
price outlook
The estimated six percent increase in sows to farrow December 1957 through May 1958 compared to a year earlier points to a
six percent increase in hog marketings for the summer and fall
months this year compared to last.
However, with more gilts and
sows being saved back to increase
breeding herds, the increase in
total hogs coming to market may
be slightly less than six percent.
This increase in hog marketings
is expected to cause hog prices to
average $1-2 lower than last year
for the summer and fall months.
Total pork stocks on February 28,
1958, were 233 million pounds or
30 percent less than last year, but
this is expected to add little
strength to hog prices.
For the period May through
August last year, monthly average price of all barrows and gilts
at Indianapolis was $20.16 per
cwt., ranging from $18.47 per cwt.
in May to $21.32 in August. With
the large increase in early spring
farrowings (December to February) expected to bring substantially increased marketings after
June this year, prices are likely to
average lower for July and August than for May and June.
prices late 1958
and early 1959
Although 1958 spring farrowings are estimated to increase six
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