FOR
INDIANA
FARMERS
INFORMATION
Prepared  by Members of the Agricultural  Staff of  Purdue   University,   Lafayette,   Indiana,   April   26,   1956
What's Ahead for Hog Prices?
by
JOHN O. DUNBAR and J. CARROLL BOTTUM, Agricultural Economics
Hog prices are expected to
improve further, reaching a
peak in June or early July. Decreased numbers of pigs farrowed this spring seem likely
to bring prices of $13 to $15
during November, 1956 to February, 1957. That's $1 to $3
higher than a year earlier. With
higher hog prices in prospect,
the Indiana hog-corn ratio can
be expected to improve moderately, barring a severe reduction in the 1956 corn crop and
feed supply.
Consumer Buying Power to
Remain Strong
DRESENT INDICATIONS point
* to continued strong demand for
farm products the rest of this year.
This should be reflected in the demand for all meat products including
pork and lard. Looking still further
ahead, we foresee no significant
change in the demand for meat in
the spring of 1957 when pigs from
sows now being bred will go to market. Even though some reduction in
supplies of fed cattle may occur, total supplies of meat will continue
mgh for the next year.
Thus any change in hog prices next
spring compared with now appears
more likely to be brought about by
changes in the supply of hogs than
by changes in demand for pork.
Hog Marketings to Decline This Fall
Last fall, 12 percent more pigs were
farrowed than a year earlier.   This
signaled the end of a two-year expansion in hog numbers which began
with spring farrowing of 1954. These
increased numbers are coming to
market now and are expected to continue coming until June or early July.
Sales of sows and gilts to further reduce breeding herds are taking place
this spring and are expected to further expand marketings between now
and early summer.
The March 1 U.S.D.A. Pig Crop
Survey indicates a seven percent decrease in spring farrowings (December 1, 1955 through May, 1956)
compared to 1955 in the nine corn
U. S. Annual Pig  Crop
MILLION
belt states. Seventy percent of the
U.S. spring pig crop was produced in
these states last year. Outside the corn
belt, farrowings may not decrease as
much (Figure 1).
Thus it appears that numbers of
spring farrowed pigs to be marketed
next fall and early winter will be reduced by six to seven percent, but
this reduction is likely to be offset
1943-5243  ^49    "50    3i      ^2    ^3     ^4    ^5
Figure 1. The 1956 Spring pig crop
is currently estimated at 6 to 7
percent below last year's.
by some increased sales of sows and
gilts equivalent to one to two percent
of the total slaughter as farmers continue to reduce their breeding herds.
To sum up, it appears that total numbers of hogs to be marketed next fall
and early winter will be down five
to seven percent.
The March 1 survey indicates only
a one percent decrease in farrowing
from last December through February, compared to an anticipated nine
percent reduction from March
through May, 1956. For this reason
marketings this year compared to last
are expected to be reduced more during late fall and early winter than
during summer and early fall. Unless we have a short corn crop in
1956, it is likely that hogs will be
marketed during the late fall and winter at somewhat heavier weights than
last year. This would tend to offset
the decrease in numbers somewhat.