Economic and Marketing Information for Indiana Farmers (Apr. 26, 1956) |
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FOR INDIANA FARMERS INFORMATION Prepared by Members of the Agricultural Staff of Purdue University, Lafayette, Indiana, April 26, 1956 What's Ahead for Hog Prices? by JOHN O. DUNBAR and J. CARROLL BOTTUM, Agricultural Economics Hog prices are expected to improve further, reaching a peak in June or early July. Decreased numbers of pigs farrowed this spring seem likely to bring prices of $13 to $15 during November, 1956 to February, 1957. That's $1 to $3 higher than a year earlier. With higher hog prices in prospect, the Indiana hog-corn ratio can be expected to improve moderately, barring a severe reduction in the 1956 corn crop and feed supply. Consumer Buying Power to Remain Strong DRESENT INDICATIONS point * to continued strong demand for farm products the rest of this year. This should be reflected in the demand for all meat products including pork and lard. Looking still further ahead, we foresee no significant change in the demand for meat in the spring of 1957 when pigs from sows now being bred will go to market. Even though some reduction in supplies of fed cattle may occur, total supplies of meat will continue mgh for the next year. Thus any change in hog prices next spring compared with now appears more likely to be brought about by changes in the supply of hogs than by changes in demand for pork. Hog Marketings to Decline This Fall Last fall, 12 percent more pigs were farrowed than a year earlier. This signaled the end of a two-year expansion in hog numbers which began with spring farrowing of 1954. These increased numbers are coming to market now and are expected to continue coming until June or early July. Sales of sows and gilts to further reduce breeding herds are taking place this spring and are expected to further expand marketings between now and early summer. The March 1 U.S.D.A. Pig Crop Survey indicates a seven percent decrease in spring farrowings (December 1, 1955 through May, 1956) compared to 1955 in the nine corn U. S. Annual Pig Crop MILLION belt states. Seventy percent of the U.S. spring pig crop was produced in these states last year. Outside the corn belt, farrowings may not decrease as much (Figure 1). Thus it appears that numbers of spring farrowed pigs to be marketed next fall and early winter will be reduced by six to seven percent, but this reduction is likely to be offset 1943-5243 ^49 "50 3i ^2 ^3 ^4 ^5 Figure 1. The 1956 Spring pig crop is currently estimated at 6 to 7 percent below last year's. by some increased sales of sows and gilts equivalent to one to two percent of the total slaughter as farmers continue to reduce their breeding herds. To sum up, it appears that total numbers of hogs to be marketed next fall and early winter will be down five to seven percent. The March 1 survey indicates only a one percent decrease in farrowing from last December through February, compared to an anticipated nine percent reduction from March through May, 1956. For this reason marketings this year compared to last are expected to be reduced more during late fall and early winter than during summer and early fall. Unless we have a short corn crop in 1956, it is likely that hogs will be marketed during the late fall and winter at somewhat heavier weights than last year. This would tend to offset the decrease in numbers somewhat.
Object Description
Title | Economic and Marketing Information for Indiana Farmers (Apr. 26, 1956) |
Purdue Identification Number | UA14-13-econ195604 |
Date of Original | 1956 |
Publisher | Purdue University. Agricultural Extension Service |
Subjects (LCSH) |
Farm produce--Indiana--Marketing Agriculture--Economic aspects--Indiana |
Genre | Periodical |
Collection Title | Extension Economic & Marketing Information (Purdue University. Agricultural Extension) |
Rights | Copyright Purdue University. All rights reserved. |
Coverage | United States - Indiana |
Type | text |
Format | JP2 |
Language | eng |
Repository | Purdue University Libraries |
Date Digitized | 03/02/2015 |
Digitization Specifications | Original scanned at 400 ppi on a BookEye 3 scanner using Opus software. Display images generated in Contentdm as JP2000s; file format for archival copy is uncompressed TIF format. |
URI | UA14-13-econ195604.tif |
Description
Title | Economic and Marketing Information for Indiana Farmers (Apr. 26, 1956) |
Purdue Identification Number | UA14-13-econ195604 |
Transcript | FOR INDIANA FARMERS INFORMATION Prepared by Members of the Agricultural Staff of Purdue University, Lafayette, Indiana, April 26, 1956 What's Ahead for Hog Prices? by JOHN O. DUNBAR and J. CARROLL BOTTUM, Agricultural Economics Hog prices are expected to improve further, reaching a peak in June or early July. Decreased numbers of pigs farrowed this spring seem likely to bring prices of $13 to $15 during November, 1956 to February, 1957. That's $1 to $3 higher than a year earlier. With higher hog prices in prospect, the Indiana hog-corn ratio can be expected to improve moderately, barring a severe reduction in the 1956 corn crop and feed supply. Consumer Buying Power to Remain Strong DRESENT INDICATIONS point * to continued strong demand for farm products the rest of this year. This should be reflected in the demand for all meat products including pork and lard. Looking still further ahead, we foresee no significant change in the demand for meat in the spring of 1957 when pigs from sows now being bred will go to market. Even though some reduction in supplies of fed cattle may occur, total supplies of meat will continue mgh for the next year. Thus any change in hog prices next spring compared with now appears more likely to be brought about by changes in the supply of hogs than by changes in demand for pork. Hog Marketings to Decline This Fall Last fall, 12 percent more pigs were farrowed than a year earlier. This signaled the end of a two-year expansion in hog numbers which began with spring farrowing of 1954. These increased numbers are coming to market now and are expected to continue coming until June or early July. Sales of sows and gilts to further reduce breeding herds are taking place this spring and are expected to further expand marketings between now and early summer. The March 1 U.S.D.A. Pig Crop Survey indicates a seven percent decrease in spring farrowings (December 1, 1955 through May, 1956) compared to 1955 in the nine corn U. S. Annual Pig Crop MILLION belt states. Seventy percent of the U.S. spring pig crop was produced in these states last year. Outside the corn belt, farrowings may not decrease as much (Figure 1). Thus it appears that numbers of spring farrowed pigs to be marketed next fall and early winter will be reduced by six to seven percent, but this reduction is likely to be offset 1943-5243 ^49 "50 3i ^2 ^3 ^4 ^5 Figure 1. The 1956 Spring pig crop is currently estimated at 6 to 7 percent below last year's. by some increased sales of sows and gilts equivalent to one to two percent of the total slaughter as farmers continue to reduce their breeding herds. To sum up, it appears that total numbers of hogs to be marketed next fall and early winter will be down five to seven percent. The March 1 survey indicates only a one percent decrease in farrowing from last December through February, compared to an anticipated nine percent reduction from March through May, 1956. For this reason marketings this year compared to last are expected to be reduced more during late fall and early winter than during summer and early fall. Unless we have a short corn crop in 1956, it is likely that hogs will be marketed during the late fall and winter at somewhat heavier weights than last year. This would tend to offset the decrease in numbers somewhat. |
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